$FB
TNBTI 7/8/13
FACEBOOK HAS SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISK AHEAD
$FB FACEBOOK SHORT SELL $24.50
OUR PRICE TARGET $30 BILLION MARKET CAP ($12.25 PER SHARE OR LOWER)
FACEBOOK IS CURRENTLY COMMANDING A $60 BILLION DOLLAR VALUATION, ONLY TO BE SUPPORTED BY VERY POOR FUNDAMENTALS. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS TECH ‘GIANT’ IS RUNNING OUT OF STEAM AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW. CURRENTLY THE STOCK IS IN A DOWNTREND, AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE REASON FOR IT TO BE HOLDING UP AT THE VALUATION IT IS AT.
A SLOW DOWNDRIFT?
INSIDER SALES: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=FB+Insider+Transactions
TECHNICALLY THE STOCK LOOKS LIKE ITS STARTING TO ROLL OVER.
AT 60 BILLION MARKET CAP, THERES A LOT OF SHARES IN THE FLOAT AND IT MAKES IT DIFFICULT FOR IT TO MOVE UPWARD.
RELATIVE STRENGTH HAS BEEN DIMINISHING. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPSIDE IS LIMITED HERE.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT WE ARE NEARING THIS INFLECTION POINT VERY SOON. THE STOCK HAS TECHNICAL RESISTANCE AT $25, AND SOME MASSIVE OVERHEAD SHARES THAT WILL KEEP IT FROM MOVING UPWARDS TOO FAST. THIS SETS UP A PERFECT SHORT-SELLING OPPORTUNITY FOR THOSE SEEKING A HIGH REWARD TO RISK PAYOFF.
FACEBOOK WAS A FAD
IN OTHER NEWS, THE FOUNDER OF BEBO JUST BOUGHT BACK THE COMPANY HE SOLD FOR $850 MILLION FOR A MERE $1 MILLION. NOW THAT IS A BIG TRADE.
http://techcrunch.com/2013/07/01/bebos-founder-michael-birch-says-hes-bought-back-the-social-network-for-1m-plans-to-reinvent-it/
LETS LOOK AT THE SCENARIO AS IT UNFOLDS. GOING INTO EARNINGS WILL BE INTERESTING. MANY SHORTS ARE SCARED BECAUSE OF THE RECENT LNKD RUN-UP (NOW A $20 BILLION DOLLAR COMPANY).
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Key Statistics |
Get Key Statistics for: |
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Data provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.
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Market Cap (intraday)5: |
59.29B |
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Enterprise Value (Jul 5, 2013)3: |
52.95B |
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Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): |
533.04 |
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Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2014)1: |
31.44 |
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PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: |
1.47 |
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Price/Sales (ttm): |
10.75 |
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Price/Book (mrq): |
4.98 |
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Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: |
9.65 |
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Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: |
40.42 |
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Fiscal Year |
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Fiscal Year Ends: |
Dec 30 |
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Most Recent Quarter (mrq): |
Mar 31, 2013 |
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Profitability |
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Profit Margin (ttm): |
1.22% |
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Operating Margin (ttm): |
9.66% |
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Management Effectiveness |
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Return on Assets (ttm): |
2.97% |
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Return on Equity (ttm): |
0.77% |
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Income Statement |
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Revenue (ttm): |
5.49B |
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Revenue Per Share (ttm): |
2.42 |
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Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): |
37.80% |
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Gross Profit (ttm): |
3.72B |
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EBITDA (ttm)6: |
1.31B |
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Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): |
112.00M |
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Diluted EPS (ttm): |
0.05 |
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Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): |
6.80% |
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Balance Sheet |
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Total Cash (mrq): |
9.47B |
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Total Cash Per Share (mrq): |
3.92 |
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Total Debt (mrq): |
2.26B |
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Total Debt/Equity (mrq): |
19.12 |
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Current Ratio (mrq): |
10.39 |
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Book Value Per Share (mrq): |
4.90 |
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Cash Flow Statement |
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Operating Cash Flow (ttm): |
1.89B |
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Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): |
1.14B |
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Stock Price History |
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Beta: |
1.33 |
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52-Week Change3: |
-22.08% |
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S&P500 52-Week Change3: |
18.12% |
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52-Week High (Jul 9, 2012)3: |
32.88 |
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52-Week Low (Sep 4, 2012)3: |
17.55 |
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50-Day Moving Average3: |
24.40 |
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200-Day Moving Average3: |
26.92 |
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Share Statistics |
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Avg Vol (3 month)3: |
38,323,000 |
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Avg Vol (10 day)3: |
34,504,700 |
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Shares Outstanding5: |
2.42B |
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Float: |
1.48B |
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% Held by Insiders1: |
8.00% |
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% Held by Institutions1: |
46.70% |
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Shares Short (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: |
36.00M |
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Short Ratio (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: |
0.90 |
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Short % of Float (as of Jun 14, 2013)3: |
2.10% |
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Shares Short (prior month)3: |
33.87M |
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Dividends & Splits |
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Forward Annual Dividend Rate4: |
N/A |
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Forward Annual Dividend Yield4: |
N/A |
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Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3: |
N/A |
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Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3: |
N/A |
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5 Year Average Dividend Yield4: |
N/A |
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Payout Ratio4: |
N/A |
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Dividend Date3: |
N/A |
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Ex-Dividend Date4: |
N/A |
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Last Split Factor (new per old)2: |
N/A |
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Last Split Date3: |
N/A |
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See Key Statistics Help for definitions of terms used. |
Abbreviation Guide: K = Thousands; M = Millions; B = Billions
mrq = Most Recent Quarter (as of Mar 31, 2013)
ttm = Trailing Twelve Months (as of Mar 31, 2013)
yoy = Year Over Year (as of Mar 31, 2013)
lfy = Last Fiscal Year (as of Dec 31, 2012)
fye = Fiscal Year Ending
1 Data provided by Thomson Reuters
2 Data provided by EDGAR Online
3 Data derived from multiple sources or calculated by Yahoo! Finance
4 Data provided by Morningstar, Inc.
5 Shares outstanding is taken from the most recently filed quarterly or annual report and Market Cap is calculated using shares outstanding.
6 EBITDA is calculated by Capital IQ using methodology that may differ from that used by a company in its reporting
Currency in USD. |
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TOP LINE TOPPING?
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Income Statement |
Get Income Statement for: |
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View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data |
All numbers in thousands |
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Period Ending |
Mar 30, 2013 |
Dec 30, 2012 |
Sep 29, 2012 |
Jun 29, 2012 |
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Total Revenue |
1,458,000 |
1,585,000 |
1,262,000 |
1,184,000 |
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Cost of Revenue |
413,000 |
397,000 |
323,000 |
367,000 |
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Gross Profit |
1,045,000 |
1,188,000 |
939,000 |
817,000 |
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Operating Expenses |
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Research Development |
293,000 |
297,000 |
244,000 |
705,000 |
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Selling General and Administrative |
379,000 |
368,000 |
318,000 |
855,000 |
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Non Recurring |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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Others |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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Total Operating Expenses |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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Operating Income or Loss |
373,000 |
523,000 |
377,000 |
(743,000) |
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Income from Continuing Operations |
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Total Other Income/Expenses Net |
(5,000) |
(2,000) |
6,000 |
(11,000) |
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Earnings Before Interest And Taxes |
368,000 |
521,000 |
383,000 |
(754,000) |
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Interest Expense |
15,000 |
16,000 |
11,000 |
11,000 |
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Income Before Tax |
353,000 |
505,000 |
372,000 |
(765,000) |
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Income Tax Expense |
134,000 |
441,000 |
431,000 |
(608,000) |
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Minority Interest |
(2,000) |
(21,000) |
21,000 |
47,000 |
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Net Income From Continuing Ops |
217,000 |
43,000 |
(38,000) |
(110,000) |
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Non-recurring Events |
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Discontinued Operations |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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Extraordinary Items |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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Effect Of Accounting Changes |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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Other Items |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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Net Income |
217,000 |
43,000 |
(38,000) |
(110,000) |
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Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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Net Income Applicable To Common Shares |
217,000 |
43,000 |
(38,000) |
(110,000) |
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Currency in USD.
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THE MARKET IS LITTERED WITH THESE SITUATIONS WHERE A FAD OR A CONCEPT CREATES A MASSIVE BUBBLE, THEN LATER DEFLATES, LEAVING THE HOLDERS DISILLUSIONED. THE MARKETS ARE A REFLEXIVE DYNAMIC IRREVERSIBLE HISTORICAL PROCESS. BOOMS AND BUSTS.
Yogi Berra’s restaurant quote: “No one goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.”
IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A CLUSTER OF GEOCITIES SITES WITH AN AOL INSTANT MESSENGER EMBEDDED ON THE SIDE. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD OTHER NETWORKS LIKE TUMBLR OR MORE PRIVATE NETWORKS.
PEOPLE WILL EVENTUALLY GROW TIRED OF BUILDING VIRTUAL FARMS AND ROLLER COASTERS.
WHAT IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO HAPPEN IS THAT ITS USERS WILL BECOME SMARTER AND USE A BROWSER EXTENSION THAT WILL PREVENT ADS FROM BEING DISPLAYED, SUCH AS THIS.
$LNKD 192.50: WE ARE ALMOST AT A PEAK HERE. IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT UPWARD AS INSIDERS ARE SELLING LIKE CRAZY. ITS USER BASE IS MUCH MORE VALUABLE. WILL BE KEEPING IT ON THE RADAR.
BE SURE TO CHECK OUT LAST EDITION(S):
LINKS:
THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™: $SWC $10.68 – STILLWATER MINING – PALLADIUM
THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™: $CRAY VS. $AAPL – 7/6/13
COMMENTARY & NOTES
“IN THE SHORT TERM, THE MARKET IS LIKE A VOTING MACHINE. IN THE LONG TERM IT IS A WEIGHING MACHINE.”
THANK YOU TO ALL OF THE NEW SUBSCRIBERS AND BE SURE TO FORWARD THIS TO A FRIEND. HTTP://WWW.TINYURL.COM/TNBTI
THE 25K MODEL PORTFOLIO™
KEY POSITION ADDITIONS & CHANGES:
NO OTHER CHARTS OR SNAPSHOTS INCLUDED
LINKS:
PCLN-888 VERY OVERBOUGHT, from 5 dollars a share to nearly 900.
NAV- NOT MUCH STRENGTH AS MARKETS ARE GETTING EXHAUSTED
NFLX- BACK UP TO INSANE LEVELS THAT SHOULD BE SOLD INTO STRENGTH
LINE- DEAD CAT BOUNCE AND SELL OFF INTO THE CLOSE. INSOLVENT?
25 per share now, Jim Cramer was pounding the table to buy at 33.00 before it crashed to 20.
HLF - ADD SHORT INTO STRENGTH 48. breaking back into the 47′s again.
NDLS - WTF. JIM CRAMER PUMPED THIS TO 50, CALLING IT THE NEXT CHIPOTLE? CMG? BORDERLINE FRAUDULENT. NOW AT 40
CDE - VERY CHEAP SHARES, SILVERS PAAS, SLV, USLV, SLW, SSRI, PAAS, HL
NTE- UPSIDE GOOD. UP 8% FOR THE DAY. small cap cigar butt or pack of cigars?
CECO- UP 28% PERFORMING NICELY. holding from call 2.65 now 3.40 ++
ACI- STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE UPWARD. coiled.
X - HIT 19 AGAIN FROM 18ISH. patience is a virtue. AA earnings reported.
SWC- 11. PALLADIUM HAS BEEN VERY ROBUST OVERNIGHT.
BBRY - NO BOUNCE YET WHATSOEVER. WE EXPECTED A STRONG BOUNCE FROM AFTER THE EARNINGS DEBACLE.
FMD - INTERESTING. EMAIL ME WHY YOU THINK THIS IS A FUTURE 10-BAGGER.
Featured: /financial-markets/LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/john-chalekson/52/357/653/
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‘EFFICIENTLY ALLOCATING INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL’
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