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THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™: S.E.C. LIFTS BAN ON H.F. ADVERTISING $ANV $ACI $OWW $PCLN - 7/11/13

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LONG/SHORT EQUITY TRADING:  
WHERE TECHNICALS MEET FUNDAMENTALS

$10.00 Per Edition  http://www.tinyurl.com/tnbti

THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™

A JOHN CHALEKSON NEWSLETTER

$ANV

TNBTI 7/11/13 

$ANV $ACI $OWW $PCLN 

$ANV – OVERSOLD GOLD, NEEDS 10% HOLDERS

500MM MARKET CAP. 90% OFF ITS HIGH. WAS A 4.5 BILLION DOLLAR MARKET CAP. FILED UNDER: DOUBLES AND TRIPLES .

CAREFUL ON THE OPEN. GOLD IS UP $20 DOLLARS RIGHT NOW, AND WHEN IT POPPED INTRADAY IT HIT ABOUT 5.60. TAKE TIME TO ABSORB THE VOLUME.  I ESTIMATE AN OPEN IN THE 5.60-70 RANGE, BUT PULLBACKS SHOULD BE BOUGHT.

Major Holders Get Major Holders for: 
Breakdown
% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 11%
% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 61%
% of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 68%
Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 178

Major Direct Holders (Forms 3 & 4)
Holder Shares Reported
PESCIO CARL A 4,453,800 Jun 17, 2013
BUCHAN ROBERT MACKAY 2,512,474 May 30, 2013
CALDWELL SCOTT ANDREW 234,717 Apr 2, 2013
BUFFINGTON RANDY E. 233,221 May 23, 2013
JONES STEPHEN MARTIN 213,927 May 23, 2013
 
 
 
Top Institutional Holders
Holder Shares % Out Value* Reported
Van Eck Associates Corporation 7,266,752 6.99 119,610,737 Mar 31, 2013
GCIC Ltd. 4,941,375 4.76 81,335,032 Mar 31, 2013
Wellington Management Company, LLP 4,851,092 4.67 79,848,974 Mar 31, 2013
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) 4,618,576 4.45 76,021,760 Mar 31, 2013
Royce & Associates, LLC 4,534,307 4.36 74,634,693 Mar 31, 2013
Sentry Select Capital Corporation 4,264,100 4.10 70,187,086 Mar 31, 2013
United Services Automobile Association 2,596,885 2.50 42,744,727 Mar 31, 2013
Guggenheim Capital, LLC 2,495,609 2.40 41,077,724 Mar 31, 2013
State Street Corporation 2,464,979 2.37 40,573,554 Mar 31, 2013
Oppenheimer Funds, Inc. 2,189,300 2.11 36,035,878 Mar 31, 2013

Top Mutual Fund Holders
Holder Shares % Out Value* Reported
Market Vectors ETF Tr-Gold Miners ETF 6,361,031 6.12 49,107,159 May 31, 2013
Oppenheimer Gold & Special Minerals Fund, Inc. 4,394,400 4.23 72,331,824 Mar 31, 2013
USAA Mutual Fd Tr-Precious Metals & Minerals Fd 2,325,000 2.24 42,547,500 Feb 28, 2013
Royce Premier Fund 2,255,500 2.17 37,125,530 Mar 31, 2013
Royce Low-Priced Stock Fund 1,663,878 1.60 27,387,431 Mar 31, 2013
SPDR (R) Ser Tr-SPDR (R) S&P (R) Metals & Mining ETF 1,319,813 1.27 10,188,956 May 31, 2013
Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund 1,202,126 1.16 19,786,993 Mar 31, 2013
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund 1,182,600 1.14 19,465,596 Mar 31, 2013
Tocqueville Gold Fund 1,166,048 1.12 19,193,150 Mar 31, 2013
Columbia Acorn Fund 1,150,000 1.11 18,929,000 Mar 31, 2013

View Transactions for Insiders & Institutional Holders

Value shown is computed using the security’s price on the report date given.

Currency in USD.

$PCLN VS. $OWW

TNBTI 7/11/13

SHORT PCLN - KAYAK PUMP & LONG ORBITZ BLACKSTONE PAIR TRADE

$OWW LONG, $PCLN SHORT. NOT BEST FUNDAMENTALS FOR OWW, BUT AT PCLN PRICE LEVELS MAKES SENSE. YOU MIGHT ALSO THROW AROUND $TZOO FOR CONSERVATIVE INVESTOR. 500MM NO DEBT.

PCLN INSANE PUMP 45 BILLION MARKET CAP BUBBLE, FROM $5.00 TO $900 IN 10 YEARS. EVEN THOUGH KAYAK HAS BEEN ABSORBED, THIS TRADE FROM THE LONG SIDE IS VERY OVER-CROWDED. 

$ACI

TNBTI 7/11/13

$4.00 – EVEN OBAMA CAN’T DESTROY BALANCE SHEET. EXPORT TO ASIA

$ACI UP FROM $3.65 FIRST PROFILED. 800MM MARKET CAP, 2.5BLN NET TANGIBLE ASSETS.5%+ HOLDERS

CHART WILL START TO SHAPE UP BETTER. $10.00 SEEMS PROBABLE. 

BE SURE TO CHECK OUT LAST EDITION(S):

LINKS:

THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™: $SWC $10.68 – STILLWATER MINING – PALLADIUM

THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™: $CRAY VS. $AAPL – 7/6/13


COMMENTARY & NOTES

“IN THE SHORT TERM, THE MARKET IS LIKE A VOTING MACHINE. IN THE LONG TERM IT IS A WEIGHING MACHINE.”

THANK YOU TO ALL OF THE NEW SUBSCRIBERS AND BE SURE TO FORWARD THIS TO A FRIEND. HTTP://WWW.TINYURL.COM/TNBTI

THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™: http://sTks.co/pIcs


THE 25K MODEL PORTFOLIO™ 
KEY POSITION ADDITIONS & CHANGES:

NO OTHER CHARTS OR SNAPSHOTS INCLUDED

LINKS:

MCP 7.00 -1.3 BILLION MARKET CAP. 7.00 I DONT LIKE THE BALANCE SHEET AS MUCH AS I LIKE THE CHART. INTERESTING HOLDERS. WAIT FOR PULLBACK!

APOL - $18.00 NEARING. POISED TO SQUEEZE. EVEN $COCO HAS STARTED TO GET SOME UPSIDE IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR. $CECO HAS RALLIED THE MOST SINCE IT WAS FEATURED. DARN, ITS ALREADY 19.00 AFTER HOURS

YOKU - 18.00 . THE JAPANESE YOUTUBE FOR 3 BILLION ? ILL PASS.
FORM - 6.86 INTERESTING. HOLDERS. CHART EXCELLENT 
MWW LNKD USE INFLATED STOCK CURRENCY TO PURCHASE? ILL PASS THOUGH CHART OK. 800MM IN GOODWILL

BBRY - 9.20 – TODAY COULD HAVE BEEN THE LAST FLUSH OF MARGIN CALL SELLING. THIS IS THE 8TH TRADING DAY SINCE THE DISASTER. A BOUNCE IN NEXT 1-2 MONTHS SEEMS LIKELY AT THESE PRICES.

SWC STILL 11.00 ? PALLADIUM ON A ROLL. $725.
NAV- NOT MUCH STRENGTH AS MARKETS ARE GETTING EXHAUSTED
NFLX- 240ISH BACK UP TO INSANE LEVELS THAT SHOULD BE SOLD INTO STRENGTH

HLF NUS NUSKIN EARNINGS PUMP UP 20% NEARLY. HLF WENT TO 51, BACK DOWN. 

CDE - VERY CHEAP SHARES, SILVERS PAASSLVUSLVSLWSSRIHL
- BACK TO LOW -MID 18 LEVEL.
FMD - INTERESTING. EMAIL ME WHY YOU THINK THIS IS A FUTURE 10-BAGGER.

DRY BULK SHIPPER BOTTOM SCRAPING T.B.D.
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX HAS DEFINITELY BOTTOMED AFTER A 5 YEAR BEAR MARKET.

IN OTHER NEWS: 


SEC Lifts Ban on Hedge Fund Advertising. 

John Chalekson
E-mail: [email protected]
THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™ http://www.tinyurl.com/tnbti
Featured: /financial-markets/
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THE 25K MODEL PORTFOLIO™ 
NOV. 2012 – JULY 10 2013 

+319%
 

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Copyright © 2013 http://www.linkedin.com/pub/john-chalekson/52/357/653/, All rights reserved.
LONG/SHORT EQUITY TRADING, WHERE TECHNICALS MEET FUNDAMENTALS.
PRICE IS WHAT YOU PAY, VALUE IS WHAT YOU GET
http://www.tinyurl.com/tnbti



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