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THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™: $SWC $10.68 - STILLWATER MINING - PALLADIUM

Sunday, July 7, 2013 3:32

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LONG/SHORT EQUITY TRADING:
WHERE TECHNICALS MEET FUNDAMENTALS

$10.00 Per Edition http://www.tinyurl.com/tnbti

THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™

A JOHN CHALEKSON NEWSLETTER

$SWC

TNBTI 7/8/13

STILLWATER MINING – PALLADIUM

$SWC STILLWATER MINING $10.68 — BUY
PALLADIUM HAS HELD UP MUCH BETTER THAN THE PRICE OF GOLD. EVEN WITH THE DISASTER IN THE SILVER AND GOLD MARKETS, PALLADIUM HAS MANAGED TO STILL BE POSITIVE FOR THE YEAR AND SHOWING A LOT OF RELATIVE STRENGTH AGAINST THE OTHER METALS.

CHART:

HOW MUCH MORE RARE IS PALLADIUM THAN GOLD AS IT EXISTS ON THE EARTH? A. 10 TIMES B.20 TIMES C. 30 TIMES ? IF ITS THAT RARE AND IS CONSUMED BY INDUSTRY, WHY ISN’T THE PRICE MUCH HIGHER THAN GOLD? LIKE SAY, $24,400 PER OUNCE? ITS CURRENTLY AROUND $650 AN OUNCE.

FROM INVESTOPEDIA:
Palladium is one of the rarest metals on earth, about 15 times more rare than platinum and 30 times more rare than gold. Belonging to the platinum group of metals, around 80% of the world’s palladium production comes from two countries: Russia and South Africa. In fact, Russia alone accounts for roughly half of the world’s production, which is estimated to be 200,000 ounces per year. This can create cause for concern as any decrease in exports from these countries can contribute to volatility in palladium prices.

In comparison to platinum, palladium shares similar chemical properties but is less dense and has a lower melting point.

WHAT ARE THE FUTURE APPLICATIONS OF PALLADIUM? CAN IT BE USED FOR (L.E.N.R.) LOW ENERGY NUCLEAR REACTIONS? WILL THIS BE COMMERCIALLY POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE?

WHAT IS KNOWN IS THE COMPANY’S BALANCE SHEET.

Key Statistics

Get Key Statistics for:

Data provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday)⁵:	1.26B
Enterprise Value (Jul 7, 2013)³:	1.11B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday):	20.70
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2014)¹:	16.95
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹:	3.47
Price/Sales (ttm):	1.50
Price/Book (mrq):	1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³:	1.31
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)⁶:	8.92

Financial Highlights

Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends:	Dec 30
Most Recent Quarter (mrq):	Mar 31, 2013

Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm):	7.51%
Operating Margin (ttm):	7.63%

Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm):	2.54%
Return on Equity (ttm):	6.27%

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm):	847.84M
Revenue Per Share (ttm):	7.27
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy):	23.40%
Gross Profit (ttm):	118.36M
EBITDA (ttm)⁶:	123.98M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm):	63.69M
Diluted EPS (ttm):	0.52
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy):	145.50%

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq):	462.11M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq):	3.91
Total Debt (mrq):	300.15M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq):	26.07
Current Ratio (mrq):	7.89
Book Value Per Share (mrq):	9.32

Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm):	104.25M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm):	25.81M

View Financials
Income Statement - Balance Sheet - Cash Flow

Trading Information

Stock Price History
Beta:	2.85
52-Week Change³:	22.48%
S&P500 52-Week Change³:	20.66%
52-Week High (Feb 15, 2013)³:	14.87
52-Week Low (Jul 24, 2012)³:	7.47
50-Day Moving Average³:	11.70
200-Day Moving Average³:	12.49

Share Statistics
Avg Vol (3 month)³:	1,834,000
Avg Vol (10 day)³:	1,429,290
Shares Outstanding⁵:	118.10M
Float:	116.19M
% Held by Insiders¹:	0.31%
% Held by Institutions¹:	91.50%
Shares Short (as of Jun 14, 2013)³:	16.13M
Short Ratio (as of Jun 14, 2013)³:	9.50
Short % of Float (as of Jun 14, 2013)³:	19.20%
Shares Short (prior month)³:	14.99M

Dividends & Splits
Forward Annual Dividend Rate⁴:	N/A
Forward Annual Dividend Yield⁴:	N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield³:	N/A
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield³:	N/A
5 Year Average Dividend Yield⁴:	N/A
Payout Ratio⁴:	N/A
Dividend Date³:	N/A
Ex-Dividend Date⁴:	N/A
Last Split Factor (new per old)²:	3:2
Last Split Date³:	Jan 4, 1999

See Key Statistics Help for definitions of terms used.

Abbreviation Guide: K = Thousands; M = Millions; B = Billions
mrq = Most Recent Quarter (as of Mar 31, 2013)
ttm = Trailing Twelve Months (as of Mar 31, 2013)
yoy = Year Over Year (as of Mar 31, 2013)
lfy = Last Fiscal Year (as of Dec 31, 2012)
fye = Fiscal Year Ending
¹ Data provided by Thomson Reuters
² Data provided by EDGAR Online
³ Data derived from multiple sources or calculated by Yahoo! Finance
⁴ Data provided by Morningstar, Inc.
⁵ Shares outstanding is taken from the most recently filed quarterly or annual report and Market Cap is calculated using shares outstanding.
⁶ EBITDA is calculated by Capital IQ using methodology that may differ from that used by a company in its reporting

Currency in USD.

ITS SELLING AT QUITE A REASONABLE PRICE WITH A RELATIVELY LOW MARKET CAPITALIZATION. THE RUSSIANS (NORILSK NICKEL) HAVE SOLD BACK THEIR 50% STAKE IN THE COMPANY AND NO LONGER OWN IT!

WE NEED TO SEE MORE 5 AND 10% HOLDERS. HEDGE FUNDS AND LARGE INSTITUTIONAL TRADERS SHOULD PROBABLY ADD POSITIONS TO THEIR PORTFOLIOS ON THIS HUGE PRECIOUS METAL PRICE DOWNDRAFT.

Major Direct Holders (Forms 3 & 4)

Holder	Shares	Reported
MCALLISTER FRANCIS R	1,330,800	May 19, 2013
WING GREGORY A	236,896	May 12, 2013
STARK JOHN	157,999	Nov 15, 2012
ACKERMAN TERRELL I	129,977	May 9, 2013
SHIELL KEVIN G	48,157	May 9, 2013

Top Institutional Holders

Holder	Shares	% Out	Value*	Reported
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The)	6,929,667	5.87	89,600,594	Mar 31, 2013
BlackRock Fund Advisors	5,900,840	5.00	76,297,861	Mar 31, 2013
Altrinsic Global Advisors, LLC	5,277,263	4.47	68,235,010	Mar 31, 2013
State Street Corporation	3,834,560	3.25	49,580,860	Mar 31, 2013
Fisher Investments, Inc.	3,730,355	3.16	48,233,490	Mar 31, 2013
Carlson Capital. L.P.	3,309,515	2.80	42,792,028	Mar 31, 2013
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	3,255,999	2.76	42,100,067	Mar 31, 2013
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A.	3,236,983	2.74	41,854,190	Mar 31, 2013
Sun Valley Gold LLC	3,204,132	2.71	41,429,426	Mar 31, 2013
Platinum Investment Management Ltd	16,149,640	13.68	208,814,845	Mar 31, 2013

Top Mutual Fund Holders

Holder	Shares	% Out	Value*	Reported
iShares Core S&P Smallcap ETF	2,075,949	1.76	24,890,628	May 31, 2013
SPDR (R) Ser Tr-SPDR (R) S&P (R) Metals & Mining ETF	1,819,197	1.54	21,812,172	May 31, 2013
BlackRock Global Allocation Fund	1,803,664	1.53	24,277,317	Jan 31, 2013
iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund	1,755,056	1.49	21,043,121	May 31, 2013
Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund	1,667,445	1.41	21,560,063	Mar 31, 2013
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund	1,595,471	1.35	20,629,440	Mar 31, 2013
Rainier Small/Midcap Equity Portfolio	1,397,680	1.18	18,072,002	Mar 31, 2013
Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund	1,395,012	1.18	18,037,505	Mar 31, 2013
Invesco Gold & Precious Metals Fund	1,296,233	1.10	16,760,292	Mar 31, 2013
Price (T.Rowe) Small-Cap Value Fund	1,174,200	0.99	15,182,406	Mar 31, 2013

View Transactions for Insiders & Institutional Holders

Value shown is computed using the security’s price on the report date given.

Currency in USD.

LOW RISK, HIGH UPSIDE

BE SURE TO CHECK OUT LAST EDITION:
THE NEXT BIG TRADE IDEA™: $CRAY VS. $AAPL – 7/6/13

COMMENTARY & NOTES

“IN THE SHORT TERM, THE MARKET IS LIKE A VOTING MACHINE. IN THE LONG TERM IT IS A WEIGHING MACHINE.”

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John Chalekson
E-mail: [email protected]

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