Getting Closer To The Edge

I am short on time, so I may be very brief today. Here on the Elder impulse chart, we are in a cluster of blue bars, which warn of a potential trend change, but at this point it still looks potential. We go an increase in volume on an up day, and are stuck in the middle between pivot points; the market can;t get much more neutral than this. It seems inevitable that we are going to pull back, but the powers that be seem to be holding it off, for what reason I don;t know. CMF is now climbing to a pretty extreme level and not likely to go much higher.

The price relative on the Nasdaq continues to deteriorate, but refuses to break down. Until it does, this is very likely to stay about where it is. CMF is also very high here, and this was negative today, so the volume doesn’t help.

Price relative on the NYSE has broken down and this is again lagging badly. All throughout 2013, whether this has lead or lagged has not made a whole lot of difference, so I don’t know what it will do now.

Here are the sectors ranked by RSI. The ranking hasn’t changed much from last week, and he number of sectors wih an RSI over 70 has now increased to 3. That is usually the point where we start a correction, but it could take a few days.

XLP is the leading sector now, and got a buy signal today, the preice relative is moving up rapidly, and even volume is increasing. The market either sees a lot of growth potential here, or it is going defensive, but either way, this does not appear to be anywhere near done going up.

XLF, on the other hand, is getting considerably weaker, but in terms of price, has held up fairly well. When this breaks down (not a sure thing), the market will correct; if it doesn’t, we will keep doing what we are doing now.

The market needs to correct, but for some reason won’t. Whether this is interference, or just an irreational market I don;t know, but it won;t last forever. The trouble is, the longer it is delayed, the worse it will be.

I will have the new highs update shortly.