How Long to the Next Recession? iM’s Weekly Update
Feb 20, 2014 Anton Vrba and Georg Vrba
iMarketSignals’ BCIw indicates a 27 weeks possible lead to a recession with a statistically remote probability of a recession occurring then. The BCIw is derived from our Business Cycle Index (BCI), which stands at 161.9 marginally up from last week’s revised 161.8. The BCIp, a measure of BCI relative to its last peak, is at 50.3. The BCI annualized growth indicator BCIg lost further ground to stand at 11.7, down from last week’s – 12.8. On past performance, it is too early to call a recession.
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Source: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Vrba-140220-Weekly-Recession-Indicator.php
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