Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 4 - 8, 2016)

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair moved upwards 150 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1150, in the context of a downtrend. The outlook on EURUSD remains bearish for this week. For the outlook to turn bullish, price needs to go upwards by at least, 300 pips from here. Otherwise, the support lines at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000 would be tested this week. Those support lines were recently breached, and they would be breached again as the bearish movement continues.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF was essentially a flat market before June 23, 2016. It was pushed upwards only by fact of the strong decline in EURUSD. Price made a faint bullish attempt last week, but it met an opposition from bears, who checked further bullish movement, and forced the price to bend downwards (in the 4-hour chart). The bullish signal on USDCHF is in a precarious situation; which means that further bearish correction could cancel the bullish signal, thus forcing price back into the neutral territory, in which it was before June 23. This week, bulls need to keep on pushing price north in order to avoid bears’ victory. There is one big roadblock ahead: CHF would soon gain a serious stamina this month and it could bring about some selling pressure on USDCHF, while having visible bearish effects on other CHF pairs (save CHFJPY).

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Cable went virtually flat last week, in the context of a downtrend. There are Bearish Confirmation Patterns on 4-hour, weekly, and monthly charts, which all signal serious weakness on Cable. Apart from this, there is a bearish expectation on Cable (and other GBP pairs); just as it was in the last two weeks. While bulls may attempt to push up price by a few hundred pips at most, bears would end up as winners. In this month, GBP pairs would experience strong movements.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY also went flat last week, in the context of a downtrend. It would be difficult for bulls to push the pair upwards significantly because there are adamant supply levels above them, and because the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week and for this month. JPY pairs are expected to assume major bearish movements this week (which could last till early October 2016). USDJPY would trend downwards by a minimum of 200 pips before the end of this week or by early next week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
While the major bias is bearish, this cross went upward 250 pips last week. There are supply zones at 115.50 and 116.50, and while price could possibly test them this week, bears would still continue to dominate the market, putting more emphasis on the major bias, which is also visible on higher timeframes. Just like other JPY pairs, this cross could go further and further downwards in the next few months, though that does not rule out the possibility of noteworthy bullish efforts.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“About fifteen years ago, I moved to the U.S. and worked with several CTAs. This was the point in my career that I made the decision to eliminate all human emotion from my trading. I became a purely systematic trader. For me, emotion and subjectivity are the enemies. Good traders follow systems. Systems have rules.” – Francisco London (Source: Collective2.com)

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