Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 15 - 19, 2016)

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair consolidated on Monday and went further upwards on Tuesday. Price moved upwards 130 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.1200, to close above the support line at 1.1150. Bulls might push price further upwards this week; however, there is a possibility of a bearish movement on EURUSD, since EUR could become weak versus other majors, save GBP, which is currently weaker than EUR. The current bullish effort would end once price goes below the support line at 1.1050.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a “sell” signal on USDCHF, especially in the near-term. There are support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650, which could be tested this week. Nonetheless, the expected bearish movement on EURUSD might enable USDCHF to stop moving south, and assume a rally that would bring about a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Without EURUSD getting weak this week, USDCHF would have to continue moving southwards.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
As it was forecast, this market went further south last week, declining by 170 pips and closing below the distribution territory at 1.2950 on Friday. Just like other GBP pairs (except EURGBP), the outlook on the market is bearish for this week, which means that the accumulation territories at 1.2900, 1.2850 and 1.2800 could be tested this week. The only factor that can reverse the current weakness in the market is an expected or unexpected fundamental factor that proves very favorable to GBP or very unfavorable to USD.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
According to expectation, this currency trading instrument was able to maintain its bearishness throughout last week, scuttling bulls’ effort to effect a protracted rally. Whenever price rallied, bears would come in to push it downwards again, thereby preserving the current bearish bias on the market. This week, the bearish bias could continue as price goes for the demand levels at 100.50 and 100.00. On the other hand, a possibility of a strong reversal exists, in case JPY gathers strength.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The movement on EURJPY was essentially flat last week, though that has not overridden the current downtrend. Price would need to consolidate further for another week or two before the bias can turn neutral, otherwise, we would witness a continuation of the southward movement or a temporary reversal that would threaten the current bearish bias. A bullish reversal may occur, but it would not last very long, because of a bearish outlook on JPY pairs, and because EUR itself is expected to be weak this week.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Good trading habits are an important factor in successful trading.” – Gabriel Grammatidis

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