Pandemiconomics
Only – it isn’t. Pandemics are not unknown unknowns, they’re known unknowns. Just as in 2008 when governments had started to forget the lessons of the Great Depression so they have forgotten the lessons of the Spanish ‘flu pandemic of 1918. History will not be kind.
Flu is Inevitable
The great, but sadly late, Hans Roslen identified a global pandemic as one of the main threats to humanity in his must-read book Factfulness:
“Serious experts on infectious diseases agree that a new nasty kind of flu is still the most dangerous threat to global health … we need the World Health Organisation to remain healthy and strong to coordinate a global response.”
“But the event may not be over in six months, as substantial mortality could continue during the second season, and many cities and countries may find it particularly difficult to cope with such a second wave.”
“And what would 24-hour nonstop news media, so adept at flogging a few accidental deaths to all-day marathons of despair and end-of-the-world comments, do with so many deaths that would just keep coming, day after day, week after week? Can we foresee how the financial markets would react to such massive and indiscriminate dying?”
As far back as 2005 the Congressional Budget Office analysed the economic impact of a flu pandemic. They were specifically focused on a bird flu outbreak but their worst case mortality rates are startlingly similar to those projected from the UK’s recent modelling for coronavirus – 90 million sick Americans and 2 million deaths. In that scenario the CBO came up with some economic impacts:
“Nonessential activities that required social contact would be sharply cut, which would lead to significant declines in retail trade. People would avoid public places, such as shopping malls, community centers, places of worship, and public transit. Attendance at theaters, sporting events, museums, and restaurants would decline. It seems likely that many schools would close, and even if they did not, attendance would fall dramatically as parents kept their children at home. In either event, large-scale school closings would lead to a spike in workplace absences because parents would stay home to care for their children even if they were not sick.”
Overall the analysis showed huge impacts on hotels, restaurants and recreational activities, significant impacts on all travel related businesses and virtually no impact on utilities, information, education, business services and financial services. Healthcare was the only sector that was positive under any pandemic scenario.
Sectors that they expected to see only minor impacts included agriculture, mining, construction and manufacturing. This, of course, was before widespread globalisation so the analysis didn’t include the potential effects of widely distributed supply chains. But, to a reasonable approximation, that looks like a pretty good summary of where we are today.
Beyond this, the long term impacts are likely to be minimal as the age profile of people dying is outside of the main economic workforce (if that sounds unfeeling, remember I’m up there myself). In the short term, dips in prices of the sectors that are likely to be relatively unscathed are opportunities to top-up. In other areas, if you fancy you can pick the survivors, there’s lots of money to be made. If you’re brave – or foolish.
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Source: http://www.psyfitec.com/2020/03/pandemiconomics.html
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