My view of C19

Photo Credit: Olgierd (3rd account) || Masks are a good idea, but they are not a great idea. Wear them for the good of others that you love.

Let me give you a table of how the US states are doing with respect to C19.

Sorry for the less than excellent graphics. My goal here is to give a view of the prevalence of C19 among US states, and how much it has increased over the last month. In order to smooth out lumpy data, I used data from weeks. My comparisons were from the most recent seven days and the seven days thirty days earlier.

I’m not a fan of the positivity rate. I am a fan of the rate of new infections as a ratio versus the population. That is a better measure of how C19 is spreading. I also like the monthly rate of increase in new cases, using 30 days as a month, and comparing the 7-day averages to minimize the variability.

The simple way to express the current problem is to say that the situation has flipped from March-May to now. The coasts were doing horribly earlier, and now the Midwest is doing horrible.

We have to do at least as well as Sweden. We should individually do our best to avoid spreading C19, and encourage others to do so. This is basic epidemiology. C19 is particularly pernicious because of its ability to spread asymptomatically. Protect yourselves and protect your friends. Wear masks when in public, it is better for your friends. Avoid large groups unless they are necessary.

You know that I was an optimist at the beginning of this crisis. I am now a moderate pessimist. As data changes, I change also.

So be careful, and protect yourself and your friends from C19.