Your Children Can’t Live Here Anymore

Photo Credit: Jason Thibault also massivekontent.com/ ||Urban Wasteland

Before I write my piece this evening, I want to express and opinion that is unpopular to many of my friends. I think Trump lost fair and square. Since Trump is a greater liar than even Bill Clinton, he continues to protest, but with no significant data, only allegations.

Here’s my quick summary. In the four states that were the smallest wins for Biden (AZ, GA, PA & WI), the state Republican parties generally did not allege any major voting fraud. They may not have liked the concept of mail-in voting and/or increased absentee voting, and they might want to curtail those methods of voting, but given that those were the rules prior to the election, you can’t fight a case over the rules themselves. You have to show the rules led to specific cases of vote fraud — i.e., here is a case where:

• someone voted twice.
• a dead person voted.
• a person that doesn’t exist voted.
• and things like that.

After there is “proof of concept” then election officials can search more intently for fraud in the same area. As it is, the Republicans on the Wisconsin Elections commission had complaints, but eventually said, “There has been no credible evidence presented to the Elections Commission that any of these problems occurred in Wisconsin…” In Georgia, the Republican Secretary of State found similarly, despite considerable pressure from Trump. And in Arizona, the local GOP did not pursue any cases assiduously. The Pennsylvania GOP pursued a few cases, but even if they won, it would not have changed enough votes to flip the state.

Trump needed to win three of these four, and won none of them. As it is, why do I look at the state GOP efforts? State parties tend to be less partisan, but they are closer to the pulse of the local electorate. If there was genuine fraud, they would act. Something with less than factual data might lead some ideologues with their eyes on a US House seat to complain, but most would not, as they will have to live with the political consequences of being unreasonable in a tighter way than those who hold seats in the US House and Senate.

I am not a fan of Biden or Trump. I view them as being equal in term of my distaste for their characters and their policies. I voted for neither of them. That said, Trump’s actions are those of a demagogue and not a hero. He is willing to tear up things that are good for the body politic generally in order to profit his own interests.

One final aside. Watch the private lawsuits fly against Trump after he is no longer President. I don’t think any will file criminal charges against him for his time as President, but there is enough pent-up against Trump from 2016 and prior that he will have his hands full. (Also, the Trump Organization is weak, and will need to survive somehow.)

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In 1987, the city council in Davis, California was holding a meeting regarding an expansion of development in the growth-averse city of Davis. I decided to go to the meeting to express my opinions. I told the city council that:

• they were stealing the property rights of the landowner that wanted to sell to the developer, and
• they were creating a city where their children could not live, as land values were rising rapidly, and only well-off people could afford to live there.

As for me, I lived in the portion of Davis where the project would most negatively affect land values. As it was, the next day the main Davis newspaper (the Enterprise, otherwise known as the Empty-Prize) summarized my comments as “David Merkel spoke in favor of the Ramos project.” It wasn’t true, and I only learned about this when some of my co-workers at Pacific Standard Life pointed it out to me.

For my troubles, I got vandalized by a guy with a high-powered slingshot who broke my front window while my wife and I were sitting near the window. I chased him down the street, but he had too great of a lead.

So much for freedom of expression.

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There’s a greater reason why I write my tale of my opinion that I gave to the Davis city council. We are experiencing the same thing now with low interest rates. On net, we are discriminating against the young in favor of those who are older. We are denying most younger people the ability to be as well-off as the generation that preceded them.

The earnings and dividends yields that they invest at are lower than prior generations, and those that can use the low interest rates to borrow to buy homes are few. (Note: homes and autos are the only places where individuals get low lending rates.) And even for those that do borrow for homes, with inflated asset values, they run the risk of losing in another 2008-9 recession scenario.

The consistent policy of the US since the 1930s is to make life harder for successive generations. The unique and unusual growth post-WWII hid that, but declining growth is laying that bare now. Social Security was a very sweet deal then for old folks that has become a very sour deal now for young folks. Defined benefits plans are a thing of the past, replaced by modest encouragements to personal savings using defined contribution plans.

And now we see the same in monetary policy, where suppressed interest rates relatively favor those who are older. And, increased indebtedness slows future GDP growth.

To close, those who are young are disadvantaged on average versus those who are older. Relatively good times have passed, pushing up asset prices, leaving future earnings from assets to be light. Future returns will NOT be anywhere near those of the past, until interest rates and stock prices correct.

If you are young, you can make up for some of this by keeping expenses down, saving more, and if it fits your personality, starting an innovative business. Good ideas are always in short supply. Also, if you are able to invest in your own successful business, to some degree you can escape the box we are in now where future public investment returns will be low. Then you only have to deal with the risks of the business, and the regulatory challenges thereof.

PS — I’ve left out the fact that unskilled wages are capped by technology and stronger competition globally, and no, there’s little to be done about either of those except to compete harder and smarter. The Baby Boomers faced neither of those when they were young, leaving aside various inefficient unionized industries dealing in commoditized products. Suffice it to say that US Millennials have it harder than the Baby Boomers ever did.