EUR/USD: Looking To Get Short Again

GROWTHACES.COM Trading Positions

USD/CAD: long at 1.1150, target 1.1290, stop-loss 1.1060

EUR/CHF: long at 1.2085, target 1.2160, stop-loss 1.2045

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

EUR/USD: Looking to get short again.

(profit taken at 1.2510, sell at 1.2605)

• The 248k increase in US Non-Farm Payrolls in September beat the consensus forecast of a 215k gain and our forecast of 230k gain. What is more the 142k rise in August was revised up to 180k. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% from 6.1% in the previous month. The drop was, however, partly due to a 97k decline in the labour force. The participation rate amounted to 62.7%, the lowest level since 1978.
• European Central Bank Executive Board member Peter Praet said on Friday that the ECB’s programmes of loans and debt purchases to ease the flow of credit would be sizeable, although giving a precise figure is difficult.
• German industrial orders posted their biggest drop in August since the height of the global financial crisis in 2009. Contracts plunged by 5.7% mom, much below the median forecast of 2.5% drop. The data for July was revised up to a rise of 4.9% from a previously reported gain of 4.6%.
• The EUR/USD fell strongly after the release of US labour market data. The EUR/USD hit the 76.4% of 1.2041-1.3995 and the September 7, 2012 low at 1.2502 bud did not break below this strong support level. GrowthAces.com has taken profit on the short position at the level of 1.2510 (1.2665-1.2510).
• The outlook remains bearish and after possible recovery of the EUR/SUD we are looking to get short again at 1.2605. The next target for the currency bears will be at 1.2465.
• One of the most important events scheduled for this week for the EUR/USD traders is the release of FOMC minutes (on Wednesday GMT). The minutes are likely to show a further shift among members towards a slightly more hawkish stance, which will be supportive for the USD.

Significant technical analysis’ levels:

Resistance: 1.2571 (low Sep 30), 1.2626 (hourly high Oct 3), 1.2673 (10-dma)

Support: 1.2501 (low Oct 3), 1.2493 (low Aug 31), 1.2487 (low Aug 30)

AUD/USD: Eyes on the RBA meeting and employment report this week.

(profit taken at 0.8650, outlook still bearish)

• A survey by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group showed total job advertisements rose 0.9% to 137,087 per week on average in September. That was the highest average since February last year.
• The AUD/USD fell to a fresh 2014 and 4-year low at 0.8642 following better than expected US Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday. The AUD/USD was under pressure of the NZD/USD in Asia after the report saying Sri Lanka suspended the sale of some Fonterra dairy products.
• We have taken profit on our short AUD/USD position at 0.8650 (0.8800-0.8650). We maintain our bearish outlook for the AUD/USD. However, in our opinion the AUD can be expected to outperform the NZD in the short term.
• The most important event this week for the AUD is the RBA meeting (Tuesday GMT) and employment report (Thursday GMT). We do not expect anything special from the central bank. Rates are widely expected to be kept unchanged and the statement will probably suggest a period of stability in rates. The FX rhetoric could be slightly less aggressive than recently due to weaker data from China, Australia’s major trading partner.
• The median forecast of official employment figures for September (are due on Thursday) is -30k as a payback for a high increase of 121k in August.

Significant technical analysis’ levels:

Resistance: 0.8770 (high Sep 29), 0.8813 (high Sep 26), 0.8885 (high Sep 25)

Support: 0.8643 (low Oct 3), 0.8623 (low Jul 8, 2010), 0.8500 (psychological level)