Exchange Rate Forecast – When to BUY or SELL Currency (Andrew Bromley)
The Pound has rallied over the last trading session, including finally making back some ground against the US Dollar. After slipping to record lows (1.5050 region), Sterling has gained nearly half a percent this morning. There had been market speculation that the FOMC minutes (released on Wednesday night) would indicate an interest rate hike, possibly this month. However, the FED indicated that April would be the absolute soonest that interest rates would increase. With a recent history of so many repossessed properties and troubled borrowers out of their depth, it would be an unwise move to increase the cost of borrowing at the wrong time. Those that managed to SELL Dollars yesterday may have sold at the bottom of the market, as 1.50 is an incredibly hard point of resistance for GBP USD to push below. There is a chance that GBP USD could drop back to these levels, as the build-up to the UK General Election could increase volatility substantially. A careful eye should be cast on the US Nonfarm Payrolls this afternoon at 15:30, as it is well known as the most volatile monthly data release.
GBP EUR has also traded favourably this morning, finding happy ground in the 1.28s again. 1.29 was seen last Friday, however this was a direct reaction to Mario Draghi’s comments on potential Quantitative Easing. As the ECB meet later this month to agree on-going fiscal policy, speculation is rife that QE will be announced. This could see the Single Currency substantially weaken. At times like these the markets could sometimes pre-empt the announcement, with the best prices surfacing prior to the date. If you are buying Euros, please feel free to contact me on 01494 787 478 / [email protected] .
Source: http://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/2015/01/09/exchange-rate-forecast-when-to-buy-or-sell-currency-andrew-bromley/
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