GBP/USD: Long For 1.5250 Despite Weaker GDP Data

Analysis by http://growthaces.com

GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies:

Trading Positions:

EUR/USD trading strategy: long at 1.1220, target 1.1550, stop-loss 1.1090

GBP/USD trading strategy: long at 1.5080, target 1.5250, stop-loss 1.4990

USD/CHF trading strategy: long at 0.8980, target 0.9180, stop-loss 0.8930

EUR/GBP trading strategy: long at 0.7470, target 0.7650, stop-loss 0.7390

EUR/CHF trading strategy: long at 1.0160, target 1.0650, stop-loss 1.0075

AUD/NZD trading strategy: short at 1.0680, target 1.0350, stop-loss 1.0770

Pending Orders:

USD/JPY trading strategy: sell at 119.20, if filled target 116.60, stop-loss 120.00

USD/CAD trading strategy: buy at 1.2350, if filled target 1.2720, stop-loss 1.2250

AUD/USD trading strategy: buy at 0.7880, if filled target 0.8250, stop-loss 0.7790

NZD/USD trading strategy: buy at 0.7375, if filled target 0.7750, stop-loss 0.7300

EUR/JPY trading strategy: buy at 132.50, if filled target 135.00, stop-loss 131.70

AUD/JPY trading strategy: buy at 93.10, if filled target 96.20, stop-loss 92.20

Forex Trading Strategies

GBP/USD: Long For 1.5250 Despite Weaker GDP Data

(we do not change our bullish forecasts)

• GDP growth in the third quarter fell to 0.5% from 0.7% in the third quarter, slower than the median forecast of 0.6%. Output increased by 0.8% qoq in services and 1.3% in agriculture. In contrast, output decreased by 1.8% in construction and 0.1% in production.
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• For the year as a whole, the economy grew by 2.6%, up from 1.7% in 2013 and Britain’s economy is on track to have been the world’s fastest-growing major advanced economy last year.
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• British banks approved 35,667 mortgages for house purchase in December, the lowest number since April 2013, 24% down from the same time a year ago. The British Bankers’ Association said that for 2014 as a whole, the number of house purchase approvals was 9% higher yoy. The mortgage market has been softening but the association expects a revival in consumer lending, because improving employment data make consumer fell more secure and optimistic.
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• The GBP/USD weakened after the GDP reading to 1.5062 as the data reinforced views that the Bank of England is unlikely to raise interest rates this year.
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• We do not change our bullish GBP/USD forecasts. We got long on the GBP/USD at 1.5080 and set the target at 1.5250.
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Significant technical analysis’ levels:

Resistance: 1.5142 (hourly high Jan 22), 1.5175 (hourly high Jan 22), 1.5205 (21-dma)

Support: 1.4972 (low Jan 26), 1.4952 (low Jan 23), 1.4900 (psychological level)

EUR/CHF: Long For 1.0650

(long positions are justified but trading CHF is risky now)

• The Swiss National Bank vice-chariman Jean-Pierre Danthine said the bank was ready to intervene in the FX market to ease monetary policy after dropping its cap on the CHF.
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• Danthine said Denmark’s policy of pegging the crown to the euro would not be suitable for Switzerland, but that Singapore’s system, which allows the Singapore dollar to rise or fall against the currencies of its main trading partners within an undisclosed trading band, deserved closer examination. He also gave Sweden and Norway as examples of small, open economies that have fared well with a flexible exchange rate.
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• The EUR/CHF rose to the levels not seen since the Swiss National Bank removed its cap on the currency and the EUR/CHF reached a day’s high at 1.0382. The rise was short-lived and the EUR/CHF is again near the levels observed during Asian session.
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• We should remember that the credibility of the new SNB policy is questionable. Jean-Pierre Danthine said on January 12 that the cap on the CHF at 1.20 per EUR would remain the key monetary policy tool and on January 15 the bank dropped the cap. Moreover, the SNB created a rise in risk aversion and demand for safe haven assets by abandoning the cap, which added to pressure on the EUR/CHF.
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• On the other hand, a strong appreciation of the CHF is very harmful to Swiss economy and the SNB may cut rates further.
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• The CHF is likely to weaken on fundamental basis and long EUR/CHF and USD/CHF positions are justified, but the volatility may be very high and trading CHF is risky now.
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• We got EUR/CHF long at 1.0160. The medium-term target is 1.0650 (recovery high on January 15). The stop-loss is at 1.0075, below today’s lows. We got USD/CHF long at 0.8980 for 0.9180.