Exchange Rate Forecast – GBP – Euro – US Dollar Prediction ( Andrew Bromley )

EURO FORECAST

The Euro seems to be slipping off of a cliff without a rope – up a creek without a paddle if you will! The markets are still digesting the spending of the Eurozone Central Bank across the collective economies, with particular focus on Greece. Greece is still a concern as the terms put forward by the Syriza party are still considered too fluffy and there is obviously still a huge amount of distrust there. In my opinion the Euro is the weakest of the major currencies by some distance. When compared to the Pound following the commencement of UK Quantitative Easing (GBP EUR hit Parity), I’d get my funds out of the Single Currency post haste! It is worth being cautious tomorrow morning at 08:00 as Eurozone Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks at 08:00…

GBP FORECAST

All currency exchanges that include the Pound should be very wary of the looming General Election and associated build up. I personally think it is incredibly hard to call now for GBP EUR as to whether or not the Pound will be pushed back significantly. The very worst scenario for the UK would be a government focused on things other than the economy – especially leaving our key trading partner the EU. Therefore should parties other than the Conservatives have a good run, be prepared for some Pound weakness. This weakness is not guaranteed to move GBP EUR however! Next week George Osborne announces what could be his last budget, and will be a vital tool for election success (or failure). In his last major address at the end of 2014 he cut Stamp Duty and pumped more money in to the NHS. It will be interesting to see if he has any other big announcements that could talk those sitting on the fence in to voting Conservative.

USD FORECAST

Following the major gain for the US last week on the back of improved employment statistics, the next key date is Thursday. The US has been hit hard in key areas of late and it will potentially be seen in the retail sales figures released. We may see the Dollar slip a small amount, however my overall opinion for the US Dollar is on-going strength. The Federal Reserve were more positive about an interest rate increase in the State this Summer so don’t be surprised to see levels in the 1.49s soon. During the Election build up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see levels go even lower in to the 1.40s!

If you have Dollars to buy, I’d get them bought ASAP. There’s no point in my opinion risking a slight improvement in rate against the worlds ‘Safe Haven’ currency when it is performing like this!

Finally, those with a New Zealand Dollar exchange – be aware that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announce their Interest Decision at 20:00 UK time – will there be a change from the current 3.5%??

If you have an exchange requirement, feel free to get in touch to discuss. With GBP EUR crashing through 1.40 and GBP USD testing 1.50, markets are incredibly volatile and worth having an extra pair of eyes on the markets!

Direct Dial to the trading floor 01494 787 478 ( Please quote this ‘Blog’ and ask for Andrew )

Alternatively email me directly [email protected]

Have a good evening…

Andrew Bromley