Forex Speculators trimmed US Dollar bullish bets, Euro positions gained for 4th week
By CountingPips.com
Overall Speculative Net US Dollar Contracts
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators slightly decreased their overall bullish contract positions for the US dollar last week while euro positions improved for a fourth straight week.
In terms of total net speculative contracts, the non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, pushed their total net contract levels lower for a fourth week last week to a total of +403,062 contracts as of Tuesday March 3rd. This was a slight change of -1,214 contracts from the total of +404,276 contracts as of Tuesday February 24th.
The total US dollar contracts calculation is derived by adding the sum of each individual currencies net position versus the dollar. Currency contracts used in the calculation are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.
The US dollar’s position remains very strong despite the weekly contract decline as the USD continues to hold a bullish position versus all the other measured major currencies (see chart below). Notable datapoints for the week included the euro speculative positions which saw an improved position for a fourth straight week while the British pound sterling positions marked the first weekly decline in six weeks. The Japanese yen, meanwhile, registered a weekly decline for the first time in seven weeks and is right around -50,000 contracts.
Major Currency Weekly Levels & Changes: One Sided – All currencies continue to remain net bearish versus the USD
Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso while decreasing weekly bets for the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday March 3rd and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.
Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 01/27/2015 | 449726 | 50489 | 235234 | -184745 | -4015 |
| 02/03/2015 | 457209 | 47719 | 244028 | -196309 | -11564 |
| 02/10/2015 | 444139 | 47217 | 241858 | -194641 | 1668 |
| 02/17/2015 | 438411 | 47175 | 232757 | -185582 | 9059 |
| 02/24/2015 | 431217 | 45511 | 223247 | -177736 | 7846 |
| 03/03/2015 | 440733 | 48467 | 220856 | -172389 | 5347 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 01/27/2015 | 185350 | 38649 | 83989 | -45340 | 368 |
| 02/03/2015 | 182903 | 36220 | 78618 | -42398 | 2942 |
| 02/10/2015 | 175966 | 36798 | 75401 | -38603 | 3795 |
| 02/17/2015 | 170627 | 42999 | 71797 | -28798 | 9805 |
| 02/24/2015 | 169784 | 46741 | 68611 | -21870 | 6928 |
| 03/03/2015 | 165737 | 44563 | 71471 | -26908 | -5038 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 01/27/2015 | 202571 | 26526 | 91184 | -64658 | 13228 |
| 02/03/2015 | 203963 | 25586 | 85157 | -59571 | 5087 |
| 02/10/2015 | 204193 | 25884 | 81008 | -55124 | 4447 |
| 02/17/2015 | 203555 | 31269 | 80360 | -49091 | 6033 |
| 02/24/2015 | 202438 | 31611 | 79123 | -47512 | 1579 |
| 03/03/2015 | 210611 | 33944 | 86465 | -52521 | -5009 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 01/27/2015 | 42956 | 8841 | 16214 | -7373 | 2436 |
| 02/03/2015 | 38421 | 8383 | 13733 | -5350 | 2023 |
| 02/10/2015 | 34459 | 5771 | 11257 | -5486 | -136 |
| 02/17/2015 | 34204 | 4740 | 10784 | -6044 | -558 |
| 02/24/2015 | 34765 | 5228 | 10313 | -5085 | 959 |
| 03/03/2015 | 40861 | 7027 | 13089 | -6062 | -977 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 01/27/2015 | 112718 | 28914 | 52877 | -23963 | 5117 |
| 02/03/2015 | 113662 | 24553 | 51874 | -27321 | -3358 |
| 02/10/2015 | 115744 | 21176 | 54509 | -33333 | -6012 |
| 02/17/2015 | 111614 | 19998 | 52840 | -32842 | 491 |
| 02/24/2015 | 118014 | 22423 | 58668 | -36245 | -3403 |
| 03/03/2015 | 121344 | 24332 | 63195 | -38863 | -2618 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 01/27/2015 | 125620 | 16079 | 65022 | -48943 | -2363 |
| 02/03/2015 | 133075 | 15969 | 72128 | -56159 | -7216 |
| 02/10/2015 | 125359 | 12517 | 65699 | -53182 | 2977 |
| 02/17/2015 | 131722 | 17230 | 71061 | -53831 | -649 |
| 02/24/2015 | 139805 | 15597 | 78751 | -63154 | -9323 |
| 03/03/2015 | 136841 | 13652 | 75197 | -61545 | 1609 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 01/27/2015 | 25594 | 11908 | 15567 | -3659 | -1842 |
| 02/03/2015 | 25687 | 10537 | 15034 | -4497 | -838 |
| 02/10/2015 | 26593 | 9272 | 15472 | -6200 | -1703 |
| 02/17/2015 | 27700 | 10021 | 15774 | -5753 | 447 |
| 02/24/2015 | 27328 | 11107 | 15437 | -4330 | 1423 |
| 03/03/2015 | 27610 | 14597 | 15964 | -1367 | 2963 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 01/27/2015 | 153115 | 26739 | 71312 | -44573 | 1690 |
| 02/03/2015 | 161412 | 23599 | 71836 | -48237 | -3664 |
| 02/10/2015 | 174861 | 25691 | 74926 | -49235 | -998 |
| 02/17/2015 | 175704 | 28873 | 74318 | -45445 | 3790 |
| 02/24/2015 | 180506 | 34105 | 82449 | -48344 | -2899 |
| 03/03/2015 | 178057 | 31414 | 74821 | -43407 | 4937 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
Article by CountingPips.com – Forex Apps & News
Source: http://countingpips.com/2015/03/forex-speculators-trimmed-us-dollar-bullish-bets-euro-positions-gained-for-4th-week/
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