Currency Forecast – When to BUY or SELL USD / EUR – ( Andrew Bromley )

EUR Forecast

The UK General Election still realistically underpins the potential direction for the Pound. At times it does feel as if this is a political broadcast blog, however such is the potential impact from the uncertainty, it would be foolish not to provide a commentary!

A hung parliament is still very much the likely outcome with the Scottish Nationalist Party likely to be the key. The SNP look set to win the vast majority of Scottish seats (from Labour) and would probably be viewed as the most sensible party with whom to form a coalition. Although a coalition with the SNP would realistically mean another Scottish referendum, it may avoid an immediate withdrawal from Europe. This would be favourable for the Conservatives, who generally speaking are the most economically focussed party and fear leaving Europe would be catastrophic for the Pound. The main point that the Tories and SNP would need to thrash out would be the Trident Nuclear deterrent, with both parties very much in opposing camps! Cameron managed to get Nick Clegg to about turn on Tuition fees – will he turn Nicola Sturgeon??

If you are holding Pounds to buy a currency, I’d be inclined to move sooner rather than later. As noted above, Uncertainty and Volatility is guaranteed! Euro Buyers – Is it worth risking the current excellent levels chasing say 1.40? I don’t personally feel that we will see that level again for a fair while! The key data out for the UK today is a GDP Estimate at 15:00. This estimate (released by NIESR – The National Institute for Economic and Social Research) is pretty accurate and will give a good indication as to the strength of the UK economy.

USD Forecast

As bad as you forecast jobs and employment data (Nonfarm Payroll), the strong Dollar will make back it’s ground! This has been made brutally obvious as last weeks poor figures on Good Friday weakened to Dollar almost back to 1.50. However we are now back this morning in to the 1.46s. Minutes for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated that some FED members still feel that a June Interest Rate hike is realistic, boosting the Greenback to current levels.

I have previously indicated that I feel 1.45 (and better!) is achievable. Therefore USD buyers may want to get in touch to make sure if favourable spikes are seen – you’re in a position to take advantage!

If you have any currency requirement, please feel free to get in touch. The direct line to the trading floor is 01494 787 478 (please quote this blog and ask for Andrew Bromley). Alternatively, email me [email protected]