Pound Euro Exchange Forecast – When to BUY Euros? ( Andrew Bromley )

The Pound has enjoyed an additional period of strength following the Easter Bank holiday weekend. This has been largely linked to a huge deal to buy British Oil exploration firm ‘BG Group’. The deal would see a purchase of £47 Bn, strengthening the Pound substantially. This Pound strength tied with the Euro weakness from yet more Greek bailout talks has helped push levels surprisingly high. Alexis Tsipras (the Greek Prime Minister) is in Russia this week, discussing the current bailout terms. A €448 Million loan repayment to the IMF due today. If there’s any indication that Greece will stall, expect substantial and swift Euros losses. However, as much as the papers print the worst case scenarios surrounding the Greek bailout, I personally don’t feel that Greece will be allowed to leave. The Russian link is a curious one as there are several (tenuous!) potential trade offs that could play out. The first and perhaps most memorable to UK clients is Russia’s involvement with the financial crash in Cyprus 2013. Just prior to Cyprus announcing it was bankrupt, the equivalent to billions of Russian Euros left the island back to Russia, leading conspiracy theorists to indicate Russian money was propping up their economy. The second concern would be for of land exchange. Would Russia part with large sums of money to have another sea port in Europe to park its warships? We saw the annexation of Crimea, would a small uninhabited Greek Island (available at a small cost to the Russians) be a useful trade off? Both are speculation, however the ideas are not new so should be in the back of Euro buyers and sellers minds.

If you have a currency requirement, please feel free to get in touch. Holders of the Pound should be wary of potential losses in the build up to the general election. If you are buying a property overseas, serious consideration should be given to ‘forward buying’ your currency. Feel free to contact me directly if you’d like to discuss a requirement, the direct line to the trading floor is 01494 787 478. Alternatively, drop me an email to [email protected]

look forward to hearing from you!

Andrew Bromley