What will happen to the Euro after the French election?

The Euro is already looking a little weaker as we approach the French elections. I can see a whole new set of challenges up ahead for the markets as we get closer to this important event, the Euro is not likely to remain stable as we get closer to the end of this week. How it performs next week will largely depend on which candidates have made it through to the next round.

The field of candidates is now looking likely to be a much closer race than we previously thought as investors try to make sense of this difficult situation. The first thing to point out is that there are now two grossly anti-EU candidates, Melenchon and Le Pen. If you have a transfer in the coming weeks making some plans around this event is crucial as it is likely one of these candidates could make it into the second round of voting.

Sunday 23rd April sees the first round of voting where the top two candidates go through. If you have a transfer to consider, making some plans in advance is crucial of this important event. Assuming at least one of the above anti-EU candidates makes it through then the Euro should remain much weaker, I would expect it could push GBPEUR over 1.20.

The next area of concern is then ahead of the second round on the 7th May. Now effectively a two-horse race, the market is unlikely to embrace the possibility of an anti-EU candidate confidently and the Euro will be in a tricky place. The final outcome will of course then be pivotal on the Euro but waiting until the final event is not necessarily the best way forward. The overall assumption is that the Euro will then be stronger after a non-anti EU candidates take power. Relying too much on Euro weakness for Euro buyers is not

If you have a transfer buying or selling the Euro then making some plans in advance is critical. There is a wide range of outocmes so making plans in advance is always a smart move. Please email me Jonathan on [email protected] to learn more.