Likely outcomes of the French election (Dayle Littlejohn)

This weekend the French public will visit polling stations once more to decide who will become the next President of France. The general consensus in the media (French pundits, newspapers) and polling stations is that Pro EU candidate Emmanuel Macron will pip Anti EU candidate Marine Le Pen to the post.

Last Wednesday was the live televised debate between the two leaders and again the media believe Macron got the upper hand, which helped his campaign. At present polls are suggesting the vote will be split 60%-40% in favour of Macron. However it’s important to note some polls are suggesting 18% of people are still undecided.

Personally I believe there are three likely outcomes.

1. Macron wins and receives 60%+ of the vote and in turn the Euro strengthens.
2. Macron wins by a narrow margin and the market doesn’t react.
3. Marine Le Pen wins and the euro plummets.

The likelihood is that option 1 or 2 will come into fruition. Looking further ahead next month is the National Assembly this could also have an impact on exchange rates. Just because Marine Le Pen may not win, if the election is close she certainly will have a voice in French politics in the years to come.

Economic data releases that will impact your exchange rates this week and therefore to look out for are, German trade numbers Tuesday morning, President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi speech late Wednesday morning and German GDP numbers Friday morning.

The currency company I work for enables me to achieve clients exchange rates that they can’t with their high street banks and other brokerages. At the same time I am here to outline your options which will help you make an informed decision of when to trade. More often than not you will have more options than you are aware of that can save you money!

If you want to save money by achieving the best possible exchange rates but also want help in timing your transfer, get in touch by emailing me on [email protected].

The more information you provide me, the more information I can provide you. Below is a list of what I require: your name, currency pair, brief description of requirement, amount, budget, timescales, telephone number and convenient time to call.