The Passing Storm

So far, so good. The storm has either passed or we are simply in the eye. I guess we’ll know if a few days.

For now, you might go back and re-read this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/cinqo-de-bottomo.html
In silver, we can finally feel like we’re making progress, maybe not so much in price but certainly from a technical perspective. All the panic liquidations seem to be over and we now have clear levels to watch for support and buying/selling points. Here’s a 30-minute chart to help for today:

Gold stopped and reversed last Thursday. as well. The chart isn’t nearly as damaged as silver or crude, reflecting that it has reassumed the role as the leader of the group. The area around 1520 will likely impede its progress for a few days but, through there, it looks positioned to head right back UP toward 1550 and 1570.

I’d also like to encourage you to go back and read this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/where-were-you-on-super-bowl-weekend.html
As a bonus, there’s a silver chart in there from before the meltdown. Ah…the good old days.

Anyway, as discussed in that note, the only tools the Fed has left in their “controlled demolition” of the dollar are talk and fear. They tried “talk” a few weeks ago but the “calvin” didn’t hold. This time they’re trying fear: “OOhhh, dat spooky EU gonna bweak up. Bettuh buy da dollah. Safe haven, ya know”.
This latest “calvin” has once again spiked the POSX back up to its primary trendline. Where it goes from here is the real question. History would suggest that the next move is straight back down but, given all of the unusual and desperate craziness of the past week, it’s impossible to say for sure.

Finally, here’s crude. President O’bottom got his wish and price has been driven almost 10% lower. The prez may be able, by wagging his tongue and finger, to get his goons to spark a margin hike-induced selloff. Something tells me, however, that his bully pulpit power does not extend to the MENA region where the latter part of this month promises to get…(uhhh, shall we say?)…unpredictable.
The damage to the chart is real though and it will take some time to fix. If you’re long, you need the area around $98 to continue to hold as it has become rather critical support.

OK, let’s go get em.
I have lasts of 1502 and 36.83. Good luck today. TF

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