Two Long/Short Pair Trades For 2012: DGP/GDX and GLD/TIP
Pair trading is a trading strategy based on the concepts of statistical arbitrage and convergence. Typically it involves being long one security and short another. For example one may believe that Apple would outperform Microsoft, so one buys Apple and shorts Microsoft. A pair trade may also involve two trading two markets that usually move close together but have drifted apart, for example the US and UK stock markets. If the FTSE has rallied strongly when the S&P has not, the trader may decide to short the FTSE and buy the S&P, taking the view than the US stock market will catch up to the performance of the UK stock market. Whilst our primary focus is on trading options, we have identified what we believe are two attractive pair trades for 2012.
Long GLD/Short TIP
The first of these pair trades is one based on convergence. Historically US real interest rates have an inverse relationship with gold prices, a relationship which we have written about frequently. The basic premise is that when monetary policy becomes more accommodative, US real interest rates decline and gold prices rise due to the ease in monetary policy. However over recent weeks gold prices have fallen but US real interest rates have remained low and this pair trade is speculating that the two will converge again.
To execute the trade we would use the gold exchange trade fund GLD and the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund, although futures can be used as well. GLD tracks the price of gold and TIP tracks the price of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Since gold prices move inversely with real interest rates, it moves with the price of inflation protected bonds, since yield and price move in opposite directions in the bond market. This relationship is demonstrated in the chart below.
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