Gold Price Rebounds, Eyes U.S. Election Outcome

GOLD PRICE NEWS – The gold price bounced back from further losses in overnight trading and rose by $5.78, or 0.3%, to $1,684.05 per ounce on Monday morning.  The spot price of gold fell to $1,672.68 – its lowest level since late August – as Asian markets closed, but rebounded as European trading progressed.  Gold prices held firm in the face of further strength in the U.S. dollar, which continued to climb against most of the world’s most liquid currencies.

Silver mirrored the price of gold, dropping to an overnight low of $30.66 per ounce but subsequently climbing back into positive territory by $0.11, or 0.4%, to $31.07 per ounce.  Gold and silver stocks turned higher alongside the precious metals this morning, as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) added $0.32, or 0.6%, to $50.08 per share.

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Notable GDX components in the black on Monday included Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), Goldcorp (GG), and Pan American Silver (PAAS).  Shares of AEM advanced by 2.7% to $54.32, GG by 1.6% to $43.84, and PAAS by 1.0% to $21.96 per share.

In spite of today’s modest rise in the gold price, the yellow metal has come under significant pressure over the past month.  Gold prices have declined for four consecutive weeks – the first such instance since September of 2011.  The price of gold has fallen victim to renewed strength in the U.S. dollar and widespread weakness in commodities and the broader financial markets.

Nonetheless, on a year-to-date basis the gold price remains higher by 7.8%.  Analysts at Scotiabank noted in their latest report to clients that the price of gold is “still holding the long-term uptrend support at $1631.”  They added that “there is also support at $1661.”

Looking ahead to this week, tomorrow’s U.S. presidential election is likely to be a significant catalyst for the price of gold and many other asset classes.  Strategists at Commerzbank argued in a recent report that “Obama is clearly ‘favored’ by the commodities markets, mainly because of his support for Ben Bernanke and the ultra-expansionary monetary policy of the US Fed.”  The firm went on to say that “any disappointment” in the markets resulting from a Romney victory “is likely to be short-lived.”

As for the U.S. economic calendar, it is particularly light this week.   Gold prices showed a muted reaction to this morning’s ISM Services data – which at 54.5 came in below the 55.0 level economists were expecting.  Beyond that, only Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment are likely to be substantial market-moving items.