The Conundrum Of Retail Sales
streettalklive.com / Lance Roberts / 17 February 2015
Over the last few days, there have been numerous articles puzzling over the surprise drop in latest retail sales report.
“At first blush, the January U.S. retail sales data were disappointing. So, the early evidence confirms the Visa survey that the savings from the plunge in energy costs is being put into the cookie jar instead of being used to buy more cookies.” – David Rosenberg
“U.S consumers are getting more caution about how they spend their savings from low gas prices.” – Akin Oydele
Of course, the fact that retail sales did not surge is not much of a surprise for several reasons:
1) Considering that labor force participation for the key employment group aged 16-54 is near the lowest levels since the late 70’s, the demand for gasoline has fallen due to fewer people driving to work. The large group of non-counted but unemployed individuals combined with increased levels of productivity due to technology remains an impediment to increased spending that is derived from production. (An individual must produce first in order to consume.)
2) Unlike an IRS tax refund which is “pre-spent” by individuals who eagerly anticipating the arrival of those dollars; when one fills up at the gas station there is no visible “refund.”As Wells Fargo’s Mark Vitner recently stated (via Business Insider):
The post The Conundrum Of Retail Sales appeared first on Silver For The People.
Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2015/02/17/the-conundrum-of-retail-sales/
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