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Gold Regains Euro Loss as Greece 'Set to Vote Yes' Say Bookmakers, India's Demand to Buy Hits Summer Lull

Friday, July 3, 2015 6:30

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Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the world-leading gold trading & ownership service online…

BUY GOLD prices in London’s wholesale market edged higher on Friday, as world stock markets fell again ahead of this weekend’s Greek referendum, asking voters whether they accept the terms of a bail-out which Athens’ creditors now say is off the table.

With the New York gold futures market closed for Independence Day, prices to buy gold with Dollars touched $1170 per ounce, regaining two-thirds of the week’s earlier 1.5% drop.

As a snap opinion poll showed Greek voters split almost 50-50 over Sunday’s ballot, prices to buy gold with Euros rose back to last Friday’s closing level at €1054 per ounce.

“Bookmakers odds might be a better guide to political outcomes than opinion polls,” writes investment bank ICBC Standard Bank’s FX strategist Steven Barrow, citing last year’s Scottish independence referendum and UK elections this May.

“Scouring some of the leading bookmakers,” “it looks like the probability of a ‘yes’ outcome is put in the 60% region while the chances of a ‘no’ vote are put at around 40%.

Greece’s banks and financial markets remained closed Friday amid capital controls restricting depositors to €60 withdrawals per day from ATMs, with reports spreading that cashpoints are already empty.

“Referendums are in fashion these days,” says one London bullion market-making bank’s note, pointing to the Scottish as well as Swiss gold referendum of late 2014.

“Unlike those, no one in the investment world really has much time (or willingness) to position ahead of [Sunday's Greek] result, especially in a week shortened by the US Independence Day.”

Shanghai’s stock market meantime sank by more than 5% yet again on Friday, extending the last 3 weeks’ slump to 30% and prompting the China Securities Regulatory Commission to say it’s investigating short sellers and market manipulation, “based on reports of unusual movements” in stock and derivatives prices.

“Whether there is a ‘Yes’ or a ‘No, an agreement is in the offing,” said Athens’ finance minister Yaris Varoufakis to Irish broadcaster RTE today, repeating a claim he made to the BBC and also Bloomberg on Thursday that “a deal is more or less done.”

On the contrary, said European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker – who said last week he felt “betrayed” by Athens’ negotiators – because “If the Greeks vote ‘no’, the Greek position is dramatically weakened.”

Seasonally weak demand to buy gold in major consumer nation India, meantime, has driven local prices as far as $15 per ounce below London benchmarks, Reuters reports.

Typically quoted at a premium to London, retail prices to buy gold in India already slipped $1 below in June, but the last two weeks’ price drop “failed to lure customers,” the news-wire quotes Bachhraj Bamalwa, director at the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation.

Latest Swiss gold export data, says consultancy Metals Focus in a new report, “ties in well with feedback from our field trips, that gold demand in India [has] eased.”

Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK’s leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is the editor of Gold News and head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen’s Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the mining-sector’s World Gold Council research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Source: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/buy-gold-070320151

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