Government “Processing Error” Sinks Housing Reports for Entire Year; Where to From Here?
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / January 04, 2016
Huge “Processing Error” in Government Housing Data
When I saw some of the upwardly revised GDP estimates in 2015 I thought they were too good to be true, and that downward revisions were coming.
I had almost given up on that idea, but I was correct all along.
Last month, construction spending was reported to be up 1%. Today we see it was only 0.3%. Economists, being perpetual optimists, came up with a consensus estimate for this month of +0.7% The actual result is -0.4%, over a full percentage point below the consensus and nearly a pull point lower than the lowest estimate of +0.5%.
Construction spending had been a highlight of the U.S. economy but less so with November’s report where the headline fell 0.4 percent, far below the Econoday consensus for plus 0.7 percent. The year-on-year gain for spending, at 10.5 percent, is the lowest since April last year. Today’s report also includes sharp downward revisions to prior months, the result of a processing error going back to January last year. October’s initial 1.0 percent monthly gain is now cut 7 tenths to 0.3 percent while September is now at plus 0.2 percent vs an initial plus 0.6 percent.
The post Government “Processing Error” Sinks Housing Reports for Entire Year; Where to From Here? appeared first on Silver For The People.
Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2016/01/04/government-processing-error-sinks-housing-reports-for-entire-year-where-to-from-here/
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