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What The Market Says – Trump Wins If…

Saturday, October 8, 2016 22:18
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While the variance across the mainstream media’s presidential election polls remains high, the trend in the last week appears to have been one of Trump losing ground to Hillary. While the two campaigns lob headline-grenades at one another, we leave it to the markets to decide what it will take to lead Trump to victory

It appears that markets – Stocks, Bonds, and FX – are leading indicators of the gap between good or bad, or the lesser of two evils, depending on your perspective.

The positive trend for Hillary appears to be catching up to stocks…

Treasury yields have swung (lower) in the direction of Hillary’s gains recently…

And The US Dollar Index’s srecent strength is supportive of Hillary…

So to summarize – S&P needs to hit 2,000; 30Y yields top 2.50%, and/or USD Index weakness is all that is needed for markets to imply a Trump win (that or a Peso collapse of course).


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