Inventory to Sales Ratios: What’s Really Going On?

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / November 18, 2016 12:00:24

On November 15, the Census Bureau released its monthly report onManufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales. Despite the fact that is it mid-November, we are just now getting data for September.

The census bureau headline reads “total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of September was 1.38.” That’s a decline of 0.1 percentage points.

I went back through a number of charts to highlight major flaws inherent in superficial reporting on headline numbers.

Bloomberg Econoday saw things this way:

“Inventories proved tame in September, rising only 0.1 percent against a sharp 0.7 percent gain in sales that pulls the inventory-to-sales ratio one notch leaner to 1.38 from 1.39. High levels of inventories were a concern going into the fourth quarter but this morning’s very strong retail sales report may in fact point to the need to build inventories further.”

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