State of Dollar’s Correction

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / Jan 7, 2016

The lack of full participation and the resulting choppy conditions may have obscured the signal from the capital markets.  That signal we think was one of correction since shortly after the Fed’s rate hike in mid-December.   The question now, after the US employment data showed continued labor market strength and that earnings improvement remains intact, is whether the corrective phase is over.

The technical evidence is not clear, but on balance, we are inclined to assume the correction is intact unless proven otherwise.   The price action before the weekend is setting up a test of this in the coming days.  The price action itself should be respected.

The Dollar Index returned to levels seen on December 14 when the Fed hiked. The five-day moving average slipped below the 20-day average for the first time since the day before the Fed’s hike.  A move now above the 102.60 area would be a preliminary signal of another run to 103.80 and higher.  The next downside target is near 100.80 and then 100. 00.

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