Dutch Election Exit Polls: Prime Minister Rutte Wins, Wilders’ Freedom Party Slides

In a setback for Dutch firebrand Geert Wilders, and perhaps the entire European populist movement, the first Dutch exit polls are out and his PVV, or Freedom Party, has only won 19 seats, tied with the Christian Democrats and Democrats 66 party, both of which also got 19 seats; the outcome is in line with polls that were predicting a sharp drop off in support for Wilders in recent days. The winner: prime minister Mark Rutte’s VVD, or Liberal Party, with 31 seats.

As Bloomberg puts it, Rutte’s major victory is the result of “voters responding to Rutte’s plea to send a signal on halting the spread of populism.”

The full  breakdown of the 13 parties that will comprise the new parliament:

• VVD (Liberal Party, Prime Minister Mark Rutte) recieves 31 seats, compares with 41 seats in 2012 elections
• PvdA (Labor Party, Lodewijk Asscher) recieves 9 seats, Labor took 38 seats in 2012 elections. The party is current government partner with Liberal Party
• PVV (Freedom Party, Geert Wilders) recieves 19 seats, Compares with 15 seats in 2012 elections
• SP (Socialist Party, Emile Roemer) recieves 14 seats, Compares with 15 seats in 2012 elections
• CDA (Christian Democrats, Sybrand Buma) recieves 19 seats, Compares with 13 seats in 2012 elections
• D66 (Democrats 66, Alexander Pechtold) recieves 19 seats, Compares with 12 seats in 2012 elections
• CU (Christian Union, Gert-Jan Segers) recieves 6 seats, Compares with 5 seats in 2012 elections
• GL (Green Party, Jesse Klaver) recieves 16 seats, Compares with 4 seats in 2012 elections
• SGP (Reformed Party, Kees van der Staaij) recieves 3 seats
• PvdD (Party for the Animals, Marianne Thieme) recieves 5 seats
• 50+ (50 Plus Party, Henk Krol) recieves 4 seats
• Denk recieves 3 seats
• Forum for Democracy gets 2 seats

Other exit polls show a similar breakdown:

Netherlands, Ipsos exit poll:

VVD-ALDE: 21%
CDA-EPP 13%
PVV-ENF 13%
D66-ALDE 13%
GL-G/EFA 11%
SP-LEFT 9%
PvdA-S&D 6%#DutchVote #TK2017 pic.twitter.com/ySHNLVmJVN

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) March 15, 2017

Netherlands, Wilders’ party PVV (ENF) results:

2006: 5.9%
2010: 15.4%
2012: 10.1%
2017: 12.6%*

*Ipsos exit poll#Wilders #Netherlands

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) March 15, 2017

With 13 parties

According to the results, at least four parties will be required to make a majority in parliament, although it is now certain that, as expected, Wilders will now have no voice in whatever final coalition is formed.

In comments following the exit poll, Deutsche Bank FX analyst Sebastien Galy writes that with the Freedom Party’s tally seen by the Dutch exit poll on the low side, this will be seen as reducing the risk premium attached to the risk of France leaving the euro zone, as a result the Euro is likely poised for further gains, and indeed at last check the EURUSD was rising to session highs, now up 1.2% on the session to 1.0736.