Government Shutdown Odds Are Rising, Goldman Warns

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Apr 9, 2017 12:08 PM

Having been quite confident that Trump would be able to pass some form of Tax reform as recently as two weeks ago, Goldman’s Washington analyst, Alec Phillips, is turning increasingly more pessimistic on the prospects that Trump’s economic agenda will gain traction in Congress, especially now that attention has seemingly shifted to Trump’s bombing policies in Syria (and perhaps North Korea in the not too distant future).

In a note over the weekend, the Goldman strategist writes that “following the failure to pass the American Health Care Act (AHCA), which would repeal the Medicaid expansion and tax hikes enacted in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and reduce the tax subsidies for health insurance under that law, Republican leaders in the House have struggled to develop an alternative health proposal that might find enough support to pass. At this point, it still appears possible that the House could pass a revised version of the bill at some point in May. However, the compromises that might be made in the House to gain support are apt to reduce support in the Senate, and the process in that chamber would take much longer than even the drawn out House process, in our view.”

He also observes that lawmakers and market participants have refocused their attention on tax reform, “though a number of other issues are likely to delay activity on tax legislation for another several weeks.” This includes another potential attempt to pass health legislation, the possibility of a government shutdown, a debt limit deadline later this year, and geopolitical developments.

Which brings us to the key topc: the prospect of a government shutdown in less than three weeks. This is what Phillips says when discussing the risks of a government shutdown on April 29.

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