Consumer Spending Flat, PCE Inflation Weakest Showing In 16 Years, Rate Hike Odds Rising

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 1, 2017

The market is increasingly convinced the Fed will hike in June, even as the economic data sinks.

CME Fedwatch shows a 67.4% chance of a rate hike in June, up from a week ago.

This is despite weakening economic reports today including flat consumer spending, negative consumer spending revisions, and falling prices (if one accepts the PCE price index) which the Fed does.

March consumer spending was a modest 0.1%, yet despite a negative revision in February from 0.1% to 0.00%, consumer spending could not meet the estimate.

Highlights

Based on the consumer and based on inflation, FOMC members won’t be feeling much pressure to raise rates at least not any time soon.

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