One Trader Asks: “Is Time To Stop Worrying About The Euro?”

Mark Cudmore, prolific Bloomberg markets commentator and former FX trader, asks a question that may validate all the work the ECB has put together in its “whatever it takes” effort of the past five years: is it time to stop worrying about the euro falling apart. For what it’s worth, we believe the answer is a resounding no, for all the reasons anothr Bloomberg analyst, Richard Breslow, explained yesterday.

From Marc Cudmore’s daily Macro View

A Macron Victory Should Seal Euro Narrative Shift: Macro View

Assuming Emmanuel Macron is victorious, it feels like this Sunday’s French presidential election will be the final nail in the coffin for structural euro bears.

Markets are driven by narratives. We hope that those narratives are based on facts. They normally are, but not always. Most often, it takes time for the narrative to realign as the facts change.

For more than seven years, the euro has been battling an existential crisis. Sure, it’s ebbed and flowed, but it’s never really gone away as the currency’s dominant narrative. It’s now time to move on,

and the single unit will appreciate as a result.

I’ll hold my hand up: I didn’t think the euro would survive this long with all its members. But it has, and it has proven its resilience. It has survived a financial crisis, bank problems, debt problems, unemployment problems, populist anti-euro politicians, protests and terrorism.

Most of those problems are behind us. This year, the euro- zone economy continues to outperform expectations. Unemployment rates are plummeting. Anti-euro candidates are failing to win majorities.

Importantly, while ECB policy may not always win enthusiastic plaudits, it has a proven track-record of ultimately doing “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro.

We no longer talk about EUR/USD parity and below. European equities have clearly been in favor the past few months. Greek deadlines get resolved without a broader ripple. We’ve moved on from Italian banking woes.

It’s time for markets to start considering the single currency’s long-term appreciation potential, at least versus developed market peers. The one thing genuinely holding it back are the large negative real yields. But as the structural problems fade into history, monetary policy will similarly adjust in the months ahead.

Those who trade on systemic market risks need to know when their expiry date has passed. It’s time for the euro to enjoy its life out of the limelight and let some other asset be the focus of market worry.