The Guns of August, The Trade Set-Up And Removing Your Rose Colored Glasses

news.goldseek.com / By Plunger / 15 August 2017

Today I am going to lay out the case of a major market top and how it fits into the geopolitical backdrop of today. We then profile the trade set-up to look for and finally I will forcefully remove your Rose Colored Glasses you have been wearing since January 2017.

In Barbara Tuchman’s “The Guns of August” she argues that August 1914 was when the Gilded Age died and the modern era actually began. The book opens with the famous depiction of Edward VII’s funeral in 1910 attended peacefully by all the kings of Europe. Never again would the body of world leaders be unified and cut from a similar cloth. The war ushered in a new world, not recognizable from the past. Not since that time have we witnessed such diplomatic folly as in the month of August 1914. Today we wonder are we witnessing a similar conflict between a super power and the client state of China which is an emerging super power? Could it unfold in a similar fashion?

Since May I have chronicled the topping process associated with a post bubble contraction. We have witnessed the following sequence:

1 The Gold-Silver ratio initially warning of an upcoming credit contraction in the future.

2. European stocks putting in a top in the traditional time window of May-June

3. USA stocks embarking on a final run for the roses, one last hurrah over the summer.

4. The Gold-Silver ratio signaling a confirmation of its original signal.

5. Yield curve flattening and credit spreads widening

6. Investor psychology embracing market top behaviors.

7. An initial crack in the US indexes in the time window of August or September.

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