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Peak Housing Bubble: 2008 Deja Vu All Over Again

Thursday, September 28, 2017 21:25

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investmentresearchdynamics.com / Dave Kranzler / September 28, 2017

Existing Home Sales were released Wednesday and the NAR’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate metric was down 1.7% from July. July was down 1.3% from June. The NAR’s SAAR metric is at its lowest rate since last August. Naturally the hurricane that hit Houston is being attributed as the primary culprit for the lower sales rate. Interestingly, the “not seasonally adjusted” monthly number for the South region was higher in August than in July. Moreover, I’m sure the NAR’s statistical “wizards” were told to “adjust” for Houston. So I’m not buying the excuse.

As for the NAR’s inventory narrative, that’s a bunch of horse hooey. Recall the chart I’ve posted a couple times in previous issues which shows that sales volume is inversely correlated with inventory – this is 17 years of data:

Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2017/09/28/peak-housing-bubble-2008-deja-vu-all-over-again/

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