BK Lim Fires Back At BP Shills On The Oil Drum — With New Forensic Analysis of BP Bathymetric Chart — And So Do I
BK Lim has fired back at the shill on The Oil Drum in his latest post “Forensic Analysis of BP’s bathymetric chart”
The post goes on to point out five areas of fundamental problems with BP’s Macondo bathymetry which include:
- Data acquisition fraud
- Data compilation fraud
- Willful Negligence and Ignorance
- Willful Misinterpretation
- Willful Misrepresentation
While BK Lim details his arguments for those problems in his post a second story emerges here in which BK Lim directly attacks the BP shills on The Oil Drum for their participation in the cover up for BP.
Like many, I followed the intense discussions at The Oildrum.com (TOD) to get some fair technical coverage of the BP’s oil spill disaster. As the disaster wore on, I started to wonder why industry experts like Art Berman, Rockman and many supporting actors (Rocdoc, PinkFud, Quaking, CraigWcoop & others) were so defensive of BP’s lies and zealously stamping out any independent bloggers’ views. If they had been truly professional and interested in seeking and disseminating the truth of the disaster, why were they not discussing incriminating issues that BP seems to be avoiding? Granted that nuking the gushing well was not really a good idea, but why should they be bitterly thrashing Matt Simmons’ apparently valid assertions as well.
…
Missing the Forest for the trees
If there had been no comments at all from TOD’s industry experts on my bathy posting, I would not have been so convinced of BP’s deceits and willful mass deception to cover up the long chain of human errors leading to the disaster. Even though there had been visits from BP’s goons to my column and in particular the Bathy posting, they did not want to bring more attention to my blog by commenting.
On 29 July2010-10:30am, Robert Rapier’s posted “A Critical Examination of Matt Simmons’ Claims on the Deepwater Spill”. It must have been a tremendous group effort involving multiple Oil Drum staff members particularly Joules Burn, Art Berman, Euan Mearns and Robert Rapier, to compile all those satellite photos, statistics and causes of methane emission (including belching cattle) just to put down one man.
Just when they thought they had successfully “snuffed out” the last flame of argument against BP (after an exhaustive day hammering down Matt Simmons), someone posted my article Why Is BP’s Macondo Blowout So Disastrous & Beyond Patch-Up? for discussion the next day. My diagrams and geological model must have infuriated those BP’s goons at TOD. Not only were my diagrams more beautiful than theirs, many impartial bloggers seemed to think my geohazards assessment made a lot more sense. It must have been most frustrating for those BP’s goons to have another sprout of doubts springing to life, so soon after the last one was snuffed out.
It could not have been coincidental that the debasing comments on the inconsequential scaling error by GeoNola, Klurker and Lurking came one day after my diagrammatic illustration of BP’s Macondo Blowout had attracted a 6,000% jump in website visits (first day) to my column. Their complete silence on the fundamental issues was deafening. All except Fintan Dunne are oilman experts and judging from their blog comments, are fiercely defensive of BP.
There’s an old saying; “You can see the ant over the river but not the elephant on the same bank”.
I picked BP’s bathymetry to illustrate what many had long feared. It is an open record of BP’s list of willful negligence which everyone can understand. BP’s goons at TOD, who had been so vocal on so many issues, have remained “loudly” silent on these bathymetric issues incriminating BP. I will end this posting by quoting the latest news on BP’s tripled record breaking spending on advertisement.
BP tripled Ad spending after spill – NYtimes
It will come as little surprise to newspaper readers and television watchers, but BP significantly increased its spending on advertising after the April 20 Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill. BP spent $93.4 million on newspaper, magazine, television and Internet advertising in the three months after the disaster, three times what it spent in the comparable period in 2009 the company reported to Congress.
Indeed BK Lim is correct.
The Oil Drum is full of BP goons who have worked in concert to silence anyone seeking the truth about this disaster by labeling them “alarmists” and member of the conspiracy theory crowd to prima facie dismiss arguments they don’t agree with.
This is a well known Government style propaganda attack that stifles open debate.
It is rather quite ironic that the Crowd at The Oil Drum would dismiss others as conspiracy theorist when the the truth is they The Oil Drum crowd themselves are conspiracy theorists who have long engaged in the practice of manipulating statistics and scaring the hell out of the world’s population to drive up the price of oil with their “Peak Oil” theory so they can rip off the consumer at the pump and line the pockets with with the profits.
For those who aren’t familiar with Peak Oil, the oil industry used the theory that the world was running out of oil to push up oil prices until data proved it was a load of crap.
So they came up with more propaganda to suck every nickel out of you pocket they could — Peak Oil — which suggests that while we aren’t running out of oil we can’t product enough oil to keep up with global consumption.
Prominent oil industry insiders and websites like The Oil Drum have pushed the propaganda for years to drive up the price of oil to benefit their careers and financial interests.
You can thank them for The Oil Drum personally for the astronomical prices that you pay at the Gas Pump which include a 400% increase in price over the last decade.
This crowd of people are the foxes guarding the Hen House.
The proof can be seen by simply looking back at the posts on The Oil Drum since the disaster has unfolded.
Within The Oil Drum IRC chat room many have complained of fascists style censorship of anyone who had anything to negative to say about BP or the Federal Government handling of the BP Gulf Oil Spill.
While the rules of the room clearly stated you would be kicked for “senseless bashing” the moderators kick those bashing BP or the Government while allowing the rest of the users to endlessly bash anyone who made any statements against BP or the Government.
On The Oil Drum website and within the chat room it is not only the “alarmists” and “conspiracy theory” crowd who have been attacked again and again.
Many well respected scientists and main stream media organizations and reporters who reported anything negative or who have disagreed with the numerous officials versions of the story told to the public by BP or the Government have also been attacked.
For example when Steve Werely first announced an estimated flowrate of 70,000 BPD they immediately began destroying his credibility offering their own calculations and estimates of the amount of oil leaking in a thread called “Is 70,000 barrels a day a possibility for the oil spill” which led to ridiculing of Steve Wereley on several sites across the internet.
While the post is littered with comments suggesting a leak rate of 20k to 30k there are others which support that Government was not lying about the leak rate and the flow of oil had actually been increasing which is why the Government continually upped their estimates.
Several comments are outright attacks on Wereley who has now been proved to be almost right on the money.
Here are several that I cherry picked from the “experts” on the thread, as opposed to the non-experts who also comment there.
GregTX on May 13, 2010 – 9:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
I’d bet my salary this leak wasn’t north of 20,000 bbls/day. An unfrac’ed well with restricted flow through a partially closed BOP into open ocean when the Gulf’s best frac’ed controlled wells can barely managed 50,000 bbls/day.
70,000 bbls/day are just laughable.
Some people just want this disaster to be worse than it already is to fuel their agenda.
Production Guy on May 13, 2010 – 10:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments topI’ll bet with Greq on this one.
FMagyar on May 14, 2010 – 8:35am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments topSome people just want this disaster to be worse than it already is to fuel their agenda.
I’m sure you meant “fuel” as a pun, right?
Just curious, who are those people and what exactly would their agenda be?
As for the disaster, I was listening to some journalist on NPR yesterday, quite convincingly argue (not that I bought his arguments) that this spill really wasn’t all that bad and that the Gulf would easily absorb the oil and nature would take its course and everything will be just fine and dandy.
For the record, your worst case scenario of 20,000 bbls/day, sounds pretty damn dire to me.
And while I’m not much of an expert, I do think that 70,000 bbls/day is probably a gross exaggeration, However I also think that neither the 20 or 70 thousand bbls/day means very much to the public at large.Maybe the MSM should put this mess into perspective by just telling J6pk in terms they can relate to. How about, “The Sh!t has really hit the fan this time, folks, and while the turds aren’t quite as big as they might have been, they stink about as bad as any we’ve ever smelled and if your livelihood depended of the Gulf waters you better get yourself a bigger paddle because the one you lost when you were just up sh!t’s creek, probably wouldn’t have cut it anyway! So, you might want to consider reassessing your agendas…
Good luck!
Fractional_Flow on May 14, 2010 – 8:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments topWhere in the f is the oil??
All the flow rates increase increase increase But I haven’t seen a picture yet of a solid oil slick…
It reminds me of the difference between production and reserves in a deepwater discovery.
An article this morning says all the recovery efforts after separation have yeilded a whopping 1000 barrels.
FF
Admiral Valdemar on May 14, 2010 – 2:54pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments topGiven BP have come out and said the GOM is so big that this slick won’t harm it, it’s not surprising some people actually accept such bullshit reasoning. It is after all, far more amazing to see a volcano erupt and conclude it emits more GHGs than it is to consider all those seemingly clean airliners flying daily.
Fractional_Flow on May 14, 2010 – 9:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments topI have already seen those pictures. I don’t see anything in there that is not 99% water… maybe the ones right at the rig.
You have obviously never cleaned a one barrel oil spill out of a creek. I unfortunately have.
FF
gearhead on May 13, 2010 – 10:33pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments topFor 70,000 bbl/day =2000 gal/min the velocity out the 16″ pipe would be 500 in/sec. The oil flow doesn’t look nearly that fast. The white gas stream is definitely faster. If so, it would be coming out as a jet straight out the pipe – not so, it is coming out at an angle.
Consider this 16″ pipe as same area and flow as about heavy duty 500 garden hoses flowing 4 GPM /hose. Stick a hose with that flow rate in a bucket and you will get alot more mixing turbulence than shown in the picture.
I SWAG 20,000 bbl/day ratioing the flow coming out to my experience sticking flowing pipes into tanks.
Permalink | Subthread | Comments topThe particle image velocimetry appears to provide the best quantitative estimate of velocity of the flow out the pipe. One major uncertainty is the oil fraction.
Typically, the PIV measures on a 100 x 100 grid with accuracy between 0.2% and 5% of full scale and spatial resolution ~1mm.
Particle Image Velocimetry See Steve Wereley‘s home page.
See Wereley’s book: “Particle Imaging Velocimetry
However, here the velocimetry appears to be inferred from the video which probably degrades the accuracy.BP later acknowledged to Congress that the worst case, if the leak accelerated, would be 60,000 barrels a day, a flow rate that would dump a plume the size of the Exxon Valdez spill into the gulf every four days.
Size of Oil Spill in Gulf Underestimated, Scientists Say”
Note missing data and description of BP’s feeding a pipe in to draw off the oil flow:
Missing data causing rig reconstruction mystery
“I can just tell you that the Halliburton hands were scratching their heads,” said Buzbee, whose clients include one of the Halliburton crew members responsible for cementing the well to prepare for moving the drilling rig to another site.
Buzbee said that when Halliburton showed BP PLC and Transocean officials the results of the pressure tests that suggested gas was leaking, the rig workers were put on “standby.” BP is the rig operator and leaseholder.
Buzbee said one of his clients told him the “Transocean and BP company people got their heads together,” and 40 minutes later gave the green light.
The attorney said the Halliburton crew members were not shown any new test results.
“They said they did their own tests, and they came out OK,” he said. “But with the phantom test that Transocean and BP allegedly did, there was no real record or real-time recordation of that test.”. . .
Meanwhile, out in the Gulf, BP settled on its next attempt to cut down on the spill: Undersea robots will try to thread a small tube into the jagged pipe that’s leaking on the sea floor. The tube, which will suck crude to a ship on the surface, will be surrounded by a stopper to keep oil from leaking into the water.
Comments can no longer be added to this story.Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments topIt is also likely that there was a initial leak, probably under 1,000 bpd, and it took a number of hours for that leak to fill several thousand feet of 20 dia pipe until the oil started leaking out the broken end.
When you look at the riser end leak shown when the large containment dome was tried and compare it to the recent leak video take a few days later two things stand out.
1 – the leak has substantially increased in size, which supports the projection that the restriction area is eroding , and;
2 – there is much more gas in the flow.
As both shots only show a few second of a variable flow it does not give a good picture.
For those trying to calculate particle velocity remember that the optical properties of water are different than air and that almost all ROV video lenses (except those for close up macro inspection) are very wide angle.
Permalink | Subthread | Comments topFlow rate that high are pretty unusual. Wikki reports on a number of gushers at around the 100,000 BPD mark, but they are mostly associated with giant fields. As far as I am aware Kirkuk in Iraq holds the record for the single most (controlled) productive oil well. I’ve seen reports and daily stats claiming peak controlled flow at just over 100,000 BPD for one of its wells – recorded back in the 60s. But this coming from one huge field.
Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments topCould BP have cherry-picked the video excerpt to give us a least-worse view of the leak?
I’ll bet BP does not have final say on what is released. Do you honestly think all relevant parties don’t have access to the video? Do you think the US government asks BP for permission to release footage? NASA spilled the beans first when they published the first spill pick. Shortly after their near real time public feeds of new incoming images experienced “hardware problems” and went offline for days. I suspect they annoyed some other government agency.
Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments topI am not a conspiracist by any means, but the very notion that BP is not intrested in the leak rate is very very very very very alarming.
The leak rate is everything. It tells you the problems (engineering) upstream and the problems (environment) downstream.
Without it, all engineering is compromised.
I’m stunned…
Good grief has everyone taken leave of their senses? I suggest you send your post off to the MMS, Coast Guard, FEMA etc. as they obviously haven’t considered that having the best possible knowledge of what’s going on is important to them and they’ll be glad to have this fact pointed out.
Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments topRegardless, this entire disaster is a product of oil company action and the industry deserves to be tarred with its own mess so that everyone remembers that this is their failure. As I’ve said before, the oil companies and their conservative allies will use the government as a whipping boy
Everything about the mad dash for deep GoM production is to do with Peak Oil and that “can’t” be explained to the public. I am disgusted by all in positions of power whether they be oil companies, banks, media, politicians, Kings or whatever. Those that think they are doing the right thing are deluding themselves at best and being actively misled by a few at worst. I am sure they disagree.
Ever seen the BBC Peak Oil Drama Burn Up where a fictionalised head of a fictionalised BP was persuaded to release unequivocal audited data on Saudi Arabia to the press as the “right thing” to do. Then the CIA stepped in and started killing everyone in desperation to retrieve the situation. Lucky it is fiction. I won’t give the end away.
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I think that there’s a distinction to be made about what BP is saying publicly here, and what their engineering staff, responsible for the engineering solution, are assuming.
BP is a multi-billion dollar brand, subject to intensive brand management in the normal way for such entities. The brand managers will be desperate to minimise the damage to their baby, and have every reason to low-ball the numbers. It’s their job to do that, even if involves being “ecomnomical with the truth”.
There’s no reason, however, to think that the crisis-engineering team ever listened to the brand message. Why should they – they have a far clearer understanding of the leakage extent than the marketeers. They’re well-positioned to make their own estimates, so they’ll do that – then dream up their (hopefully) solutions. And they know far better than anyone writing on this board about whether there;s a spare ROV for a few days.
I’m not particularly convinced that the costs of getting accurate numbers are worth the benefits – and accurate numbers shouldn’t be confused with the expected brand management activities we’ve been seeing in the media.
Regards Chris
Your argument is internally inconsistent. You believe that BP has more accurate estimates. How expensive can a Congressional Subpoena be?
Way too many variables for me:
1. What is the oil/gas/water/sand ratio of the mix exiting the pipe?
2. What is the effect of the pressure at depth on this substance? Is this mix compressable? Is the measure of velocity/volume at depth a good estimate of the same at the surface?
3. At what point in the water column do the various components of this substance begin to separate? What percentage of crude oil components separate into solid/semi-solid “tarballs”, and at what depth do these components reach near neutral bouyancy? It occurs to me that the water column is, in effect a refinery, separating the different components.
4. How much emulsification of the lighter components of the crude occurs, and what effect does this have on the volume reaching the surface? Do the more volatile components actually evaporate immediately when reaching the surface?
5. Are the videos of the mix exiting the pipes representative of this process over time? Does the flow fluctuate? How consistant is the composition of the mix over time? Has/will the ratio of oil to gas increase over time?
Many more questions/variables will make any postulated estimate useless. There is only one good answer to the question of how much:
Too much.
Caught a thread last night regarding the registration of the rig. Out on a well so I couldn’t respond at the time. But here’s the short answer. I can see how folks could be confused especially since most of us have serious doubts about BP’s integrity. But we don’t need to develop false issues. There already appears to be enough sins by the parties involve to justify a lynching.
A little clarification on the requirements for drilling in the US OCS offshore areas. It does not matter what flag a vessel flies: Liberian or the planet Venus. No drilling rig can operate in US water unless it meets all the standards required by the MMS. As pointed out, many rig fly a foreign flag for tax reasons. But that has no bearing of safety equipment or procedures used on the rig. No one has the RIGHT to drill a well in our OCS. It is a privilege granted only after the rig proves it complies with all MMS standards. The regs that deal with these issues not some short memo. It covers thousands of pages of requirements and regs. Comply satisfactory or you don’t get a drill permit. Simple as that.
OTOH, are the MMS regs and enforcement satisfactory? I think most have come to the correct conclusion that the system is very lacking. I’ve seen a rig fined by an MMS inspector because he found too many burned out light bulbs. Rules are rules, right? In the oil patch it’s called “getting ink” from the feds. Too much ink and you get a big fine. Way too much ink and they’ll shut down the operations. Way, way too much ink and they’ll cancel your operator’s license. I suspect by the time the blow out investigation is concluded they’ll discover the standards are more than adequate for the little stuff but grossly lacking for the big stuff: the stuff that burns down rigs, kills hands and destroys a big chunk of the environment. Just MHO.
FOR ALL
As usual I start with the big IF. IF the story is true I can promise you the lawyers of the company these potential witnesses work for already have their sworn statements in the can. And, IF those statements exist they will become a part of the official public record. Absolutely no chance of suppression. These potential witnesses, IF they really exist, don’t have a dog in the fight. Credibility will be very high.
My definition of a secret: something only one person knows. Anymore than it’s only limited knowledge. IF the story is true it will start leaking from the sources soon IMHO. If we don’t see that happening in the next week or so I’ll become more suspicious of its validity.
Criminal vs. negligent: all in the eye of the beholder IMHO.
Where’s the oil? Model suggests much may be gone
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_gulf_spill_where_s_the_oil;_ylt=Am5LmPxt4w…
pipecalculator on May 14, 2010 – 11:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
People like RedDan and that ‘professor’ are just confusing the people without getting their math right. What’s worst is that they don’t list their assumptions or how they came out with their uncertainty ranges!!
What difference in oil/gas slip velocities are they assuming?
What cross-sectional area are they choosing to come up with their volumes?
Are they assuming slug, annular, mist flow?
What PVT and compositional properties are they assuming?
And if we want to play with basic calculations, let’s play:
A typical 6″ pipe has a capacity of 0.0296 bbl/ft (you can also calculate it assuming an ID of 5.524 in). That is, a flow rate of 5000 bbl/d means an average velocity of 5000/0.0296 = 168918.92 ft/d = 1.96 ft/s or 0.6 m/s
Repeat the same calculation for a 4.5″ pipe and you will get an average velocity of 3.6 ft/s or 1.1 m/s
From the video, some people state that they have calculated a velocity of 1 m/s. Which is what I just calculated above. IN OTHER WORDS, it is possible to get those speeds with 5000 bbl/d and a cross-sectional area of 4.5″!!!
Of course, this does not include calculations on flow regime (laminar, turbulent, annular, slug, etc.) or the true cross-sectional area occupied by the relative fractions of oil/gas/water/sand present in the stream or the different slip velocities between phases or the PVT variations due to an obstruction. All of which ARE NOT BEING TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT by these so called ‘fluids’ experts.
In my point of view, THESE SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE with flow rates of 5000 bbl/d. People that keep playing with their pseudo math are just looking for press.
pipecalculator on May 15, 2010 – 2:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments top
You can call my 4.5″ an average or effective cross-sectional area occupied by the relative fraction of oil moving in that pipe. Remember v = q/A. The main controversy here is what to use as A to back calculate q (flow rate).
Not everything that is moving in that pipe is oil so we should not use the inner diameter as a base for our calculations. You also have gas, sand, etc. flowing in the same pipe and they all flow at different velocities. To distinguish the relative fluid fractions from this video is not straightforward. But even if you assume that half of what you see is oil, you would be talking about 10,000 bbl/d, not 70,000 bbl/d.
Here is part of the thread that discusses the story about BP skipping the Cement Bond Log and the immediate dismissal and debunking of the story.