Superbugs could kill 300 million people by 2050

Health News

No, not the extraterrestrial race of pseudo-arachnids from Starship Troopers. More like the bacteria at the end of War of the Worlds. Only in real life microorganisms won’t be the heroes, but a villain more deadly than cancer itself. According to a Review on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) commissioned by British Prime Minister David Cameron, deaths from drug-resistant infections could go from the current 700,000 a year to 10 million by the year 2050. And the associated costs could amount to $100 trillion – that’s one hundred trillion dollar coins – decreasing the world’s Gross Domestic Product by %-3.5% in the same span of time. “To put that in context” review leader economist Jim O’Neill told the BBC on Wednesday, “the annual GDP of the UK is about $3tn, so this would be the equivalent of around 35 years without the UK contribution to the global economy.”

Number of yearly deaths caused by antimicrobial resistance vs. other leading causes of death:

- Tetanus: 60K

- Cholera: 100K – 120K

- Measles: 130K

- AMR (now): 700K

- Road traffic accidents: 1.2M

- Diarrheal disease: 1.4M

- Diabetes: 1.5M

- Cancer: 8.2M

- AMR (2050): 10M

O’Neill is well-known analyst of developing countries, and has coined the acronyms BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey). Speaking of which, “In Nigeria, by 2050, more than one in four deaths would be attributable to drug resistant infections, while India would see an additional two million lives lost every year,” he said. “This is a significant global problem, perhaps on the same dimension as climate change. Trying to solve it is a bit like climate change. The cost of stopping the problem is significantly lower than the cost of not stopping the problem.”

Annual deaths attributable to AMR by 2050 per region:

- Oceania: 22,000

- North America: 317,000

- Latin America: 392,000

- Africa: 4,150,000

- Asia: 4,730,000

The review – which is actually optimistic in that it didn’t consider a scenario in which antibiotics are no longer effective – has struck a chord with the United Kingdom and outside as well. “By highlighting the vast financial and human costs that unchecked drug resistance will have, this important research underlines that this is not just a medical problem, but an economic and social one too,” director the Wellcome Trust Dr. Jeremy Farrar aid, while chief medical officer for England professor Dame Sally Davies said, “this is a compelling piece of work, which takes us a step forward in understanding the true gravity of the threat.”

On the other side of the Atlantic, former U.S. Treasury secretary and president emeritus of Harvard University Lawrence Summers stated that “the world needs to get serious about tackling the rise in antibiotics resistance. Ignoring the tide of drug-resistant infections risks rolling back the hard-won medical advances of the last century.” Additional reports are expected throughout the summer of 2016. O’Neill announced that he and his team would focus next on how drug use can be changed to decrease resistance, how to promote the development of new drugs, and on the need for cohesive international support – especially from BRIC and MINT countries – regarding drug use in humans and animals.

We started this piece with a reference to science fiction – which is scarily turning into science fact –, a field of literature where post-apocalyptic scenarios are a favorite. However, according to the World Health Organization, a post-antibiotic scenario in which run-of-the-mill infections and minor injuries can kill is a distinct possibility.

Related Read:

Deadly superbugs could cost $100 Trillion by 2050

Superbugs to kill ‘more than cancer’ by 2050

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