Coronavirus COVID-19: Prevention is Better than Cure
Coronavirus pandemic also named as COVID-19 which is, rapidly, spreading across the world has killed more than 27,365 people and infected over 597,267 people despite lockdowns in many countries, especially Western states, putting over 1.3 billion in self-isolation. After affecting 200 countries, the disease is enveloping new territories.
In Spain and Italy, more persons have died due to COVID-19, as every day new individuals are being contaminated, raising the deaths doll.
Therefore, many Western countries, including Asia academic institutions have been closed, while, restrictions have been imposed on gathering of the people—religious, political and social protests, while public events such as games, musical events etc., including other functions like marriage ceremonies have been curbed. These countries have also closed markets, hotels and restaurants, and have banned conferences and seminars.
Taking precautionary measures, airport screening of passengers is being done not only at airports, but also at other transport places like railway stations, bus stations etc. To further prevent the coronavirus outbreak, authorities of the many countries has stepped out screening of passengers arriving from coronavirus sensitive countries.
Owing to the impact of COVID-19, world’s some governments have also imposed curfews and national emergency, and many of them have forced travel restrictions of various kinds—airlines have announced drastic reduction in their operations. And some countries have closed border with the neighbouring countries.
US President Donald Trump has announced a suspension of “all travel from Europe to the America for the next 30 days. Different countries have adopted testing of the persons, suspected by the indications of the contravirus.
As regard Pakistan, it has also taken almost similar measures, taken by other Western countries, especially China who has succeeded in controlling COVID-19. In this respect, Government of Pakistan has also closed down schools, colleges and banned the marriage ceremonies etc. A ban was also imposed on sit-ins and processions, rallies at public places, sports gathering and cinemas.
Up to March 28, this year, the number of coronavirus-deaths in Pakistan has reached the figure of nine, whereas the number of total cases affected by the virus is 1,331.
As most of the Pakistanis were not taking precautionary measures to save their lives from the coronavirus pandemic in accordance with the instructions of the medical experts and the health department, the central and provincial governments were compelled to impose restrictions of various kinds to stop further outbreak of this fatal disease. READ MORE >>
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Whistler Blowers, Insiders
You are missing “The Corona Bonanza”
Bonanza 1
There will a temporary shock to the government fiscal revenues as Imports will crash,CIF rates of imports will also crash,domestic production has stopped (as tax on MRP less deductions is paid at the time of production and not sale),domestic MRP rates will also crash.That is Y the state has not passed the benefits of lower crude and palm rates to the people
The Bonus is in non-salary expenditures of the state,which are on ARC (Annual Rate Contracts) or other RC.With crash in commodities and surplus capacities – Pakistan can easily make and re-negotiate its procurements.Large nations like Hindoosthan,will face disaster,as they will face supply risks,per se.W.r.t the purchases by the Pakistani state,the state can declare Force Majeure,especially on International contracts.
There is no immorality in this,as the suuply and value chain of the suupliers to the state – will,in any case,declare Force Majeure – which will ensure that the suupliers will default on the government contracts.The supliers will make supplies at ARCs,only to the extent of the existing stocks,as at March 15th,2020.They cannot be allowed to supply,from new purchases at the old ARC rates.
Global suppliers will be glad to dump their stocks – with depots in Pakistan – for sale to the Pakistani State.
This could easily reduce the costs by 30-50%,on a one time and recurring basis.Once this Cost is saved,in phases,the benefit of oil price crash on fuels and edible oils and also power tarriffs and fertilisers,can be passed on to the public.That will be pure jannat.
Bonanza 2
The Only Solution to the supply chain risk in USA/EU (w.r.t their supply chains in PTRC) lies in massive robotics and AI – which will make humans obsolete in manufactuirng and also,in part,in IT.The question is,what to do with the humans.That is Y the virus is sought – Simple !
For Pakistan – the crash in Raw Materials and cost of capital, availability of capital and crash in logistics costs will make manufacturing and exports viable.That makes existing unviable manufacturing units viable and jobs and decline in NPAs.No fresh capacities should be launched,solely based on the current cost structure.Crash in costs plus the low labour costs in Pakistan and stable PKR – is the Alt-AI and Robotics
The Pakistani people should thank its prior leaders,that they made manufacturing unviable in Pakistan,and made it a trading nation. Had the state set up manufacturing units – they would be unviable,banks would be busted and there would have been mass skilled unemployment. Just look at Hindoosthan. dindooohindoo
This is the time for setting up manufacturing units – SME and others.
The military,food,telecom,technology and health secuirty of the USA and EU is in the hands of the PRC.These nations will be FORCED to move at least 10-20% of their supply chain,to other nations.They have no choice.
Bonanza 3
The SBP and the treasury of the private sector,should suck in the Corona rate cuts and packages in EU/Nippon/North East Asia and the USA – and restructure the entire FX loan portfolio,w.r.t tenor,spreads,risk premiums,swaps and hedges. One simple way,is by trade finance,which is based on underlying trade and other activties with those nations.
Bonanza 4
After doing 3 and 4 above,the state should invite bids to build and repair infrastructure on BOOT basis.The Cost of infra should reduce by at least 30%,supplemented with long term soft loans and grants.
With viable manufacturing and exports,lower cost of debt – an already cheaper infra cost – will make infra financing and operations,all the more viable
Bonanza 5
To lock in the gains to the people and industry,the SBP and the State should lock in to NYMEX crude and futures,at current rates (on CBOT or with large funds etc.) – for as long as possible,with reasonable contangos or maximum backwardation.A large nation cannot do this – as it will move the premiums,in the derivatives market.
The State should thereafter, lock in the oil and gas rates – and then affix power and fertilisr tarriffs, for the same tenor – with a priority for industrial zones – after meeting the consumer needs.Edible oil contracts can also be struck with large funds,in the USA/EU.
This is also the time for the state to declare Force Majeuer on the ulra high cost RPP/IPPs.With reduced power demand,the entire power demand of Pakistan, can be met from fuel and coal plants,at less than half of the previous marginal cost. For several people, this power supply can be free of cost,as the Marginal cost of power on current fuel costs,should be around 1-2 Rupees (which is not worth collecting from marginal users).
It is time to celebrate !