The Kiss of Death (Preliminary)
Infoworld.com and Dice.com are running a piece about the low unemployment rates in Computer-related occupations (also loosely ill-defined as “Tech” and “IT”). The open-borders lobby will surely use these reports to continue dumping foreign labor into these occupations.
The data they are using is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by subscription only. I happen to be on that subscription list. There is a clear warning in the BLS instructions stating:
“Occupation data for unemployed persons refer to the experienced unemployed only, classified according to the occupation of their last job.”
Observing this constraint from the BLS instructions, we can see that the data does not include recent graduates, persons who could do the job, but were not employed in the occupation as their last job and those who have become discouraged and quit looking for work in the occupation.
We can get an idea as to how many “experienced” workers are regaining employment during this hiring spree from the data.
| Employment and Unemployment Loss/Gain in Computer Related Occupations Q4 2011 to Q4 2012 | |||
| Growth Loss | |||
| Employed | Unemployed | ||
| Computer and information research scientists | -2,000 | NA | |
| Computer systems analysts | 52,000 | 5,000 | |
| Information security analysts | 14,000 | NA | |
| Computer programmers | -1,000 | 5,000 | |
| Software developers, applications and systems software | 162,000 | -12,000 | |
| Web developers | 3,000 | -1,000 | |
| Computer support specialists | 38,000 | -5,000 | |
| Database administrators | 9,000 | 1,000 | |
| Network and computer systems administrators | 13,000 | -3,000 | |
| Computer network architects | 35,000 | 2,000 | |
| Computer occupations, all other | 7,000 | -5,000 | |
| Employment Growth vs Experienced Professionals re-employed | 330,000 | -13,000 | -3.94% |
From the table above, we see that employment levels rose by 330,000 and unemployment levels declined by 13,000. With these figures in mind, we see that only 3.94% of the employment growth came from the “experienced unemployed”.
Even in the occupation, “Software developers, applications and system software” we only see a decrease of 12,000 out of 46,000 experienced unemployed, even with growth of 162,000 jobs. In fact, only 7.41% of 162,000 jobs went to unemployed persons with experience in the occupation as their last job.
Note: The BLS recommends that this CPS (Current Population Survey) data be averaged or smoothed over four Quarters. Perhaps I’ll revisit this report with smoothed data at a future date.
DATA Tables used in this blog entry:
Quarter 4, 2011
| Table 3. Employed and experienced unemployed persons by detailed occupation and class of worker, Quarter IV 2011 (Source: Current Population Survey) | ||
| Employed | Unemployed | |
| Computer and information research scientists | 28,000 | 3,000 |
| Computer systems analysts | 445,000 | 12,000 |
| Information security analysts | 51,000 | NA |
| Computer programmers | 462,000 | 17,000 |
| Software developers, applications and systems software | 998,000 | 46,000 |
| Web developers | 199,000 | 8,000 |
| Computer support specialists | 443,000 | 30,000 |
| Database administrators | 112,000 | 1,000 |
| Network and computer systems administrators | 211,000 | 13,000 |
| Computer network architects | 92,000 | 0 |
| Computer occupations, all other | 334,000 | 14,000 |
Quarter 4, 2012
| Table 3. Employed and experienced unemployed persons by detailed occupation and class of worker, Quarter IV 2012 (Source: Current Population Survey) | ||
| Employed | Unemployed | |
| Computer and information research scientists | 26,000 | NA |
| Computer systems analysts | 497,000 | 17,000 |
| Information security analysts | 65,000 | 2,000 |
| Computer programmers | 461,000 | 22,000 |
| Software developers, applications and systems software | 1,160,000 | 34,000 |
| Web developers | 202,000 | 7,000 |
| Computer support specialists | 481,000 | 25,000 |
| Database administrators | 121,000 | 2,000 |
| Network and computer systems administrators | 224,000 | 10,000 |
| Computer network architects | 127,000 | 2,000 |
| Computer occupations, all other | 341,000 | 9,000 |
2013-02-17 00:04:07
Source: http://immigration-weaver.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-kiss-of-death-preliminary.html
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