Education: Unemployment Outcomes

I read somewhere that there are more unemployed college graduates than there are unemployed high-school dropouts.  Considering the perception that many people seem to have (of those who post in comment sections),  regarding young people, I decided to take a look at those numbers.

Notably, there is a trick to the statistics that the media throws around concerning high-school dropouts, the media is generally quoting an “on time” graduation rate, many dropouts go on to finish high-school and may also go on to vocational school and/or college.

Second, it is true, there are more unemployed college graduates. This piqued my curiosity a bit further so I downloaded the adjusted BLS-CPS data series as far back as it goes (1992) to evaluate any discernable patterns over time. I chose  the latest available month for data, and plotted the following chart using November as my sample for each year going back to 1992.

Contrary to popular belief, the HS Dropout rate among those in the Civilian Population is declining, there is an uptick in the percentage of those with Some College (includes Associate degrees) and a higher percentage are finishing their undergraduate degrees.

In terms of stable employment, the labor market does not appear to be rewarding these individuals for their increased educational achievements. For those with some college and college degrees, unemployment spiked 3.56 million above 2006 levels in 2008, and are still 2 million higher than 2006 levels as of this writing.
Since 1992, the population of those 25 and older has grown by 46,864,000.  Currently, the breakdown of educational attainment for this population group is:

• College Graduate = 66,376,000 (+10.07% since 1992)
• Some College = 55,152,000 (+ 3.62% since 1992)
• HS Dropout = 24,518,000 (-8.04% since 1992)
• HS Diploma = 61,723,000 (-5.65% since 1992 (presumably better educated now))

An interesting note is that the HS Dropouts dropout levels are actually -336,000 actually lower than they were in November of 1992. Those with Some College include Associate degrees; they are clearly the most vulnerable group in this data-set, with unemployment levels currently 866,000 higher than in Nov. 1992.  Surprisingly, College Grads, which includes all degrees from a bachelor’s and above, have current unemployment levels 722,000 higher than 1992.
 

I don’t put any faith in the actual Unemployment statistic, but I thought it would be valuable to provide the BLS-CPS charts so examine any nuances between the educational groups.  (Of note, is that the better educated, the more pronounced the spike in the unemployment rate in the 2001-02 recession.)

U-3 Unemployment College Graduates
 
U-3 Unemployment Some College

U-3 Unemployment HS Dropout

U-3 Unemployment HS Diploma

Next we have the elephant in the room, the Employment to Population ratio, which has been plummeting since the end of the Great Recession.

From Wikipedia:

According to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of U.S. recessions) the US recession began in the United States in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, and thus spanned over 18 months.^{[22][23] [LINK]}

^{Employment to Population Ratio}

Each percentage point drop in the Labor Force Participation Rate(age 25 and over), represents over 2 million jobs.

Civilian labor force participation rate (Labor Force Participation Rate)

The only conclusion I have to offer in this post, is that contrary to the opinion of many, we are becoming markedly more educated and the percentage high-school dropouts is declining.  And — that the concept of adding “smarter people” to the population and workforce, be it through education or immigration, does not appear to be producing the desired result of less unemployment and a higher participation rate.

Data: http://bls.gov/data/ 

Downloaded on  1/4/2014

Series Id:    LNU00000048
Not Seasonally Adjusted   
Series title:    (Unadj) Population Level – 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status:    Civilian noninstitutional population

Series Id:    LNS13027662
Seasonally Adjusted   
Series title:    (Seas) Unemployment Level – Bachelor’s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status:    Unemployed

Series Id:    LNS10027662
Seasonally Adjusted   
Series title:    (Seas) Population Level – Bachelor’s degree and higher, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status:    Civilian noninstitutional population

Series Id:    LNS13027689
Seasonally Adjusted   
Series title:    (Seas) Unemployment Level – Some College or Associate Degree, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status:    Unemployed

Series Id:    LNS10027689
Seasonally Adjusted   
Series title:    (Seas) Population Level – Some College or Associate Degree, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status:    Civilian noninstitutional population

Series Id:    LNS13027659
Seasonally Adjusted   
Series title:    (Seas) Unemployment Level – Less than a High School Diploma, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status:    Unemployed

Series Id:    LNS10027659
Seasonally Adjusted   
Series title:    (Seas) Population Level – Less than a High School Diploma, 25 yrs. & over
Labor force status:    Civilian noninstitutional population