Debunked: Shortage in Math and Computer Science

Subjects: H-1B visa, STEM shortage myth, Bachelors Degree, STEM shortage debunked, Math and Computer Science degrees

I am surprised that I had not thought of approaching the STEM shortage myth in this manner before.  Math and Computer Science comprises 50% of all STEM occupations and roughly 60% of all new H-1B visas are computer related.

The H-1B visa program began in 1992; therefore, we can presume that Math and Computer Science occupations were primarily staffed with citizens and permanent residents in 1992. 

Employment level: Math and Computer Science (1992) = 1,830,800

From 1992 to 2013, 2,317,505 NCSES accredited degrees and certificates have been awarded to citizens and permanent residents as their highest degree.  Using 1992 employment levels as our baseline, we add the new degrees to that total.

Employment level: Math and Computer Science (1992) = 1,830,800
*Math-Comp Sci (highest degree awarded 1992-2013) = 2,317,505
 
Total Math-Comp Sci Workforce = 4,148,305 

*College degrees: Citizens and permanent residents only

Next, we look at the employment level for Math and Computer Science occupations in 2013 and subtract the workforce number from above to determine if there is a shortage.

Employment level: Math and Computer Science (2013) = 3,696,180
Total Math-Comp Sci Workforce = 4,148,305

Total Math-Comp Sci Workforce Surplus = 452,125

So where is this shortage?

This surplus is 9,042 for every state in the nation, or a surplus of 12.23%.  For retirement to be a significant factor, a significant portion of those employed in Math and Computer Science occupations would have had to have been 42 in 1992, highly unlikely since IBM’s MS-DOS was not introduced until August of 1981.

We also know from the Census Bureau, that a bachelors degree is not mandatory in computer science.  Aptitude can be proven with coursework, individual initiative, or both.

High School or less 
Computer support specialists = 49,200
Computer occupations, all other = 31,800
Software developers = 22,400
Computer programmers = 21,800
Computer systems analysts = 20,800
Computer and information systems managers = 20,100

Some College or Associate’s Degree 
Computer support specialists = 210,700
Computer occupations, all other = 125,100
Computer and information systems managers = 116,500
Software developers = 114,700
Computer systems analysts = 98,700
Computer programmers = 94,300
Network and computer systems administrators = 87,200

Total non-Bachelors degrees = 1,013,300 (28.04%)
Employment 2011 = 3,614,046

(In 2011, Computer Occupations was 50% of all STEM occupations.)

Source: Liana Christin Landivar, 2013, “The Relationship Between Science and Engineering Education and Employment in STEM Occupations,” American Community Survey Reports, ACS-23, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC.


Detailed by field of degree, the Census Bureau report thats only 49% of those with Computers, mathematics, statistics degrees are working in STEM fields.  Under the twisted logic of trade-association, open-borders propaganda, they would have you believe that this is due to these professionals finding better employment in other fields.  The reality is that 51% of these professionals have been crowded out of their chosen field by temporary foreign workers.

Census Bureau: Bachelor’s Degree for the First Listed Major: 2011
Computers, mathematics, and statistics = 1,879,764
51% not working in STEM = 958,679

Other data sources:
Occupational statistics data: http://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm
IPEDS Completions Survey by Race https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/webcaspar/