Is Korean Crisis A Cover For Chinese Attack On Russia?

     Chinese troops are mobilizing and massing along the North Korean frontier.  This is seemingly a reponse to the escalated level of rhetoric coming from the North Korean government, but it could be a smokescreen in advance of a Chinese “blitzkrieg” against the Russians.

     Improbable, you might think?  Try this on…  As the Russian coventional military power continues to stagnate the Chinese military machine is ever growing.  When once the Russians were the leading economy of the far east, they are now nothing more than suppliers of raw materials to the Chinese industrialists.  Russian birth rates have long been in decline and the Siberian region was never a desirable place for the average Ivan to dwell.  China, however, has been growing people exponentionally and is bursting at the seams.  Additionally, China has long maintained claim to a large amount of Russian territory in Siberia.  It has not been all the long since the two nations fought along the disputed border in the 1960′s.

     Why would China take on Russia?  the answer can be paraphrased by invoking Hitleresque speech.  It would be done for “living room.”  China needs the oil and gas that Siberia holds, as well as the minerals such as iron and copper ore, and other rare minerals, needed to sustain a modern economy.  China would also get the indirect benefit of being able to utilize new territories that would free up zones in traditional China for efficent agriculture purposes.  This would be a property theft of national scale.

     How would this play out militarily?  The Chinese have the upper hand in terms of quantity of men and equipment.  While the Russians field some modern arms technology, the Chinese would be able to quickly suppress and overwhelm defenses.  The Chinese also have the advantage of shorter lines of supply and the additional benefit of having the ability to launch attacks upon multiple axises.  The Russians are hobbled by a long line of supply that relies mostly upon the old Trans-Siberian Railroad which can be easily interdicted.  The railroad runs very close to the Chinese frontier in several areas and could easily be cut and shut down.  The Russian Army is also in the middle of several significant changes of organization.  They are trying to transition from a conscript army to a smaller all volunteer force.  They are also trying to make an change to where non-commissioned officers would be given greated latitude of command and inititive.  History has shown that armies are vulnerable during times of change.  The Russian Navy is in a even worse state of readiness.  They have few bases, and their main base at Vladavostok, is within easy striking range of multiple Chinese bases by either missile or plane.  Worse, the Russians tried to save all their old Cold War tonnage after the Soviet Union collapsed.  By trying to keep everything operating, they never had the funds to perform even basic maintenance on their ships and planes.  Much of the fleet is rusting at the pier, and the ships that might be able to sally out of port, are subject to catastrophic failure.

      The nukes!  What about the nukes?  Russia would be in the awkward position of either using nuclear weapons defensively on its own territory, or making strategic strikes against the Chinese breadbasket and industrial hinterland.  Using nuclear weapons on their own land is self defeating as they would not be able to exploit the resources of that specific subregion.  As the Chinese advance, they would be using Russian roads and moving through Russian towns.  An effective nuke strike would kill their own people in those towns, as well as effectively shutting down transportation nodes that would be needed in peacetime.  In short, the Russian deficit in population and transportation would be amplified.  A strategic strike at China, or a strike against Chinese bases that support an invasion, invite a similar Chinese counter-strike.  Here, the Chinese, with their multiple paths of attack, could take a series of hits while the Russians could not absorb even one nuke strike along their line of supply.  Both sides have the ability to destroy each other in a full scale nuclear war.  The mutual assured destruction should keep cooler heads from that event, or from a localized attack.  Not using the nukes greatly benefits China.

     What about North Korea?  North Korea is a Chinese client state.  While the North Koreans do not march in a lock step with the Chinese, they are completely dependent upon their Chinese benafactors for food and fuel.  A military alliance would benefit the North and they could come away with Russian territory and some new ports.  Up until the end of the Cold War, the old Soviet Union supplied the North Koreans with fuel, food, military equipment, and technicians and training.  When that line of supple dried up, it left the North with a bitter taste towards the Russians.  A Chinese/North Korean victory, would guarantee the North’s current goverment sustainability and they would gain traction in the international community.  More land, resources, and a greater ability to export, would enhance their prestige.

      And South Korea?  Unless their is a direct attack upon the South by either North Korea, or China, they will sit out such a war.  They would not want to see a more powerful North, but the South might be able to delude themselves that a bigger China would translate to more business for the Southern factories.

     And the United States?  The USA would have to accept a real politik solution to these events.  Americans are very leery of being drawn into a Asian landmass war.  They can and will defend South Korea from foreign attack, but the USA has no treaty, or other, obligation towards Russia.  The USA would be forced to take a new look at the situation, re-evaluate its priorities, and decide if if it is necessary to support one side over the other.  One possible variable in Russia’s favor would come about indirectly from America’s Nato allies.  A lot of the oil and natural gas that is used in Western Europe originates in Russia.  If that supply is disrupted, those allies may demand some sort of action.  The Chinese do have some economic strength they could try to levarge the USA with, but there is a lot of industrial capacity in other regions of the world and the USA could retaliate by repudiating all debt owed to China.

     And the American people?  All of the above has been anticipated and considered by the American military and State Department.  Our satellites are keeping close watch on the region and stay alert for troop movements and pre-positioning of supplies.  Signal intelligence is constantly evaluated, and reevaluated, to identify patterns that might suggest an imminent attack.  It should be noted however, that historically, a number of intelligence failures have occured in the Pacific region.  The lead up to the Japanese  attack on Pearl Harbor was incorrectly analyzed.  The next day a air attack on the US base at Clark Field in the Philipines was not anticipated.  In 1950, no one was expecting the North Korean attack upon the South.  Likewise, the later Chinese intervention, in that war, was excluded as a serious possibility.

     Now what?  Hopefully, we will be ready and our powder will be dry.  We must not let fear take control of our minds, rather we should carefully, and critically, think about the myriad of possibilities that this crisis might entail.  I will make one suggestion; be very careful as to disclosing American, or Allied troop movements.  Our biggest strength is that we live in a free society, but conversely, our biggest weakness is that same freedom.  A chance mention, of something that out military is doing, might be the very thing that gets some of our people killed.  Please watch the video as a means of education…..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Bw93L15mrE