Egypt After the Coup… Is Obama Backing ElBaradei?

Beirut — According to well-connected Washington sources, including a

Congressional staffer whose job description includes following political

events in Egypt, once it became evident that Egyptian President Mohamed

Morsi might well be ousted by Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed

Forces (SCAF), it did not take Mohamed Mustafa ElBaradei, the Sharia legal
scholar, Nobel Peace Prize Laureate, and for 12 years (1997-2009) the Director
General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) very long to
contact the Washington, DC law firm of Patton Boggs.

That was this past Tuesday. The very next day, ElBaradei’s representatives

reportedly also made contact with the Conference of Presidents of Major
American Jewish Organizations which claims to represent the 52 largest

American Jewish groups. ElBaradei, perhaps the current front-runner to
replace his long-time nemesis, Mohamed Morsi, moved fast to organize some

key allies in Cairo and Washington to pick-up where his earlier failed

Presidential campaign left off in January 2011.

Patton Boggs, the K Street, NW Washington DC law firm, which last year had
550 lawyers and 120 lobbyists and is arguably the firm closest to the White

House and most likely to secure for its clients what they want from the

approximately 5000 key decision makers in the US Capitol. The other nearly
11,800 federally registered lobbyists in Washington (there were only 300 as
recently as when Lyndon Johnson was US President) lag far behind Patton
Boggs in terms of political influence.

Patton Boggs new client wants the Pentagon and the White House to
squeeze Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) who deposed
President Morsi and arrange for himself to be appointed the interim President
of Egypt pending early elections.

What ElBaradei’s representatives are reportedly offering the White House in

exchange for Obama’s discrete assistance, is that the 1979 Camp David
Accord, including all its elements, will be observed. In addition, Egypt under

ElBaradei can be expected to toughen its stance on Iran’s nuclear program

including publicly adjusting some of his pre-2012 comments on Iran that the

White House and Israel criticized as being “soft on the Islamic Republic.”

Also being promised by ElBaradei’s agents is that security cooperation
between Egypt and Israel will grow stronger. ElBaradei’s objective is to secure
Barack Obama’s personal support during his jockeying for the expected
forthcoming Egyptian presidential election.

Once again the Obama administration was caught by surprise as the “Arab
spring,” still in its infancy, increasingly portends ill for Western-installed
potentates in all the Sykes-Picot artificially created “countries.” According to
Congressional insiders, Obama reportedly has some doubts. Those following
events in Egypt will likely recall his praise of Morsi after the two former

University Professors had a chance to sit together and get to know one

another. “I like this man,” Obama reportedly told some staff members, “he
thinks like me.”

When Morsi was deposed, Obama lamented: “We are deeply concerned
by the decision of the Egyptian armed forces to remove President Morsi and
suspend the Egyptian constitution. I now call on the Egyptian military to
move quickly and responsibly to return full authority back to a democratically
elected civilian government as soon as possible through an inclusive and
transparent process, and to avoid any arbitrary arrests of President Morsi
and his supporters.”

Meanwhile, the SCAF, at the urging of ElBaradei’s team, is paying sweet lip

service regarding Obama’s expressed concerns. Shortly before the words

were uttered by Minister of defense, Brig. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the State

Department received a copy of the speech with the first paragraph

highlighted to assuage Obama: “The armed forces will not interfere in the

realm of politics or governance and will not overstep the role that it is
assigned in a democracy, which stems from the desire of the people.” Those
words sound good also in Foggy Bottom.

Patton Boggs talking points to the Congress and Obama Administration are
that President Morsi had more than a year to show progress to the Egyptian

people, with both institutional political legitimacy derived from their election

victories, and that he enjoyed strong popular support when he assumed full
power from the armed forces in June 2012 but that he failed badly and the
new government — hopefully led by ElBaradei — will now act more efficiently

to move the country towards credible and legitimate institutions of
governance.

ElBaradei’s campaign, as reported in the July 4th edition of the New York
Times also worked hard to convince the White House of what he called the

necessity of forcibly ousting President Morsi, presenting several arguments
that included documentation that Morsi had bungled the country’s transition
to an inclusive democracy and wasted a year without following thru on any

of his pledges.

Some Congressional analysts believe that one of Morsi’s biggest mistakes
resulted from a deliberate policy of accommodation and not, as is commonlye4686
believed, confrontation. He allowed the military to retain its corporate
autonomy and remain beyond civilian control. Furthermore, he included in
his cabinet a large number of non-Muslim Brotherhood figures who
abandoned him within months when the going got tough, thus presenting to
the public an image that the government was on the verge of collapse.

Some have suggested that Morsi should have brought the military to heel
soon after he assumed power and was at the height of his popularity, just as
the military was at its lowest point in public perception. Monday morning

quarterbacking is now rampant to explain Morsi’s failures.

What the Muslim Brotherhood and Mohammad Morsi’s supporters do in the
coming days at Tahir Square and across Egypt will likely determine the route
and the ultimate success of ElBaradei growing juggernaut.

Meanwhile, as of today, it appears that President Barack Obama may well

help usher Mohammad ElBaredei into Egypt’s Presidential Palace. If the

Obama administration has success there will be joy in Tel Aviv, and at Patton
Boggs’ victory party, where a good number of the invited guests will almost

certainly be carefully vetted by AIPAC.

Franklin Lamb is doing research in Lebanon and Syria and is reachable at
[email protected]