The American-Egyptian Relation – Is it dying or surviving? – A. Hany Hassanain

One of the drastic mistakes of Hosni Mubarak’s regime was that when the Americans declared their New Middle East plans to restructure it by creative chaos theory until it is divided according to racial and religious sectarian factors in the mid nineties, the regime did not counter plan against it. The old man did not listen to advices from the intelligence and the army in an early stage. When it became clear after occupying Afghanistan and Iraq it was late for him to counter attack. His son thought that having good relations with the Americans will spare the regime the battle.

It was not about the regime, it was about Egypt itself in an existential war. The equation was that the Americans did not want a big country in the region so that they can control it as they like before 2020 when they confront China. Their ready plans for the Arab spring succeeded the first test in Tunis and they were ready for the big prize, Egypt. To succeed they had to kill the Egyptianism or the national identity of the Egyptian people. The terrorist group Moslems Brotherhood for a reason or another was ready to play the dirty role against their country.

The development of 7% that the regime achieved did not improve the life of most Egyptians as wealth was in hands of the few corrupted businessmen that had strong connections with the regime. The youth was easy to manipulate and the internet campaign that was controlled by activists who had training by the CIA did not mention anything about the brotherhood.  Another reason was that the literature of the brotherhood considers nationalism and Egyptianisms their first enemy and the big obstacles towards the new Caliphate that they wanted to create even if Egypt will be downsized. For eighty years they portrayed themselves as the innocent group that suffers on hands of security because they are not corrupted. When the 25 January succeeded it was easy for them to engage and even manipulate internal policies for their favor supported by the Americans. The US pressed for their sake and even the doubtful elections of Morsi as a president was frankly supported by the Americans and they threatened to spread armed chaos in Egypt if the Military Council announced the fraud of the election that gave Morsi a trivial 1% to be a president.

While Morsi was pardoning terrorists and releasing them from prisons the US gave him its unprecedented support and Sinai desert became a terrorist heaven. The plan was dividing Egypt into four or five regions and annexing parts of Sinai to Gaza to create the alternative country for the Palestinians.

When 30 June revolution impeached their agent Morsi several visits to him where he was kept on custody were done by officials from the US administration and the EU foreign council. Something that never happened with Hosni Mubarak who was their ally for 30 years; but an agent is more important than allies when it is a conspiracy. The frequent visits and the frank support of those who are against 30 June with manipulating the truth in the American and other Western media angered the Egyptian people and there were requests to cut relations and to start alliance with Russia.

Until now the Americans think that their aids to Egypt may improve relations. It is not about the aids. From a strategic point of view it is an existential war that is waged against Egypt. On streets the people think of the Americans as an enemy. Egyptians are Middle Eastern and in Middle East one learns that foreign policy means his life and matters of peace and war is everyday news. What the American diplomats think it is behind closed doors of embassies it is in fact discussed in open air and in cafes around their embassies of the Middle East.  

The nationality and the Egyptianism are so strong here that touching these subjects kills trust. It is up to the Americans and the West now if they want Egypt a friend or an enemy. No one in Egypt will ever trust the Americans and the West again if there are no positive steps to build a new trust. All think that congratulating the new constitution and resuming sending aids are just a cover to maneuver and devising new plans to divide Egypt.

If the Americans want or need Egypt a friend they should know that the grey zone is not present now and it is white or black. If they declare the International Moslems Brotherhood a terrorist group and help Egypt to arrest its members and to confiscate their assets around the world and finally to compensate Egypt for the harm done by them it will open a new door for improving relations but it will not build the new trust.

Building the trust needs deleting the spreading chaos theory in the Middle East and ending the role of its tools. The tools of the spreading chaos are the fundamentalists who are financed by the Americans or their allies as Qatar. At the same time Hamas cannot stay anymore in Gaza and an Egyptian military action should be taken against it and trying its leaders with the support of the Americans and the West. The Qatari ruler has no role within the scope of the new American-Egyptian relation and one of his half brothers from another wife of his father may take his seat. At the same time the Americans should not think that improving relations with Egypt will stop it from having better relations with Russia.

It is hard and may be impossible for Obama administration to take such decisions as the American administration’s goal is to collect terrorists and to send them to fight in China in the Islamic regions. Tunis proposed to play this role and its premier Ghanoshi’s invitation for the Moslem Brotherhood members to have a political sanction in his country is a trial to give a place instead of the Egyptian desert Sinai after the Egyptian army achieved success on war on terror there. Simply he sends a message to the Americans that he is ready to take the role of their agent Morsi. However, Obama’s ally Erdogan will leave the top post in Turkey soon. He has cancer prostate and at the same time his corrupted government may force him to go to elections by next June instead of the next year if there will not be a military coup before June. The Obama’s deal with Iran angered the Saudi Arabia and the Emirates and they know the American plans to divide the kingdom into four regions. This will be another factor for them to have an alliance with the Egyptians and supporting a Russian-Egyptian axis.

If Obama thinks that having Tunis a base to collect terrorists and having Iran and Turkey allies while continuing in his plans to spread chaos in the Middle east to recruit more terrorists for the Americans’ planned war by proxy against China he has to think about Kurds who will have their historical opportunity to have their lands in Turkey and Iran united and to create their state. This time the Russian-Egyptian axis with the Saudis will be backing them against the American-Turkish-Iranian axis. Even Tunis the base that the American chose as an alternative for Sinai to collect terrorists may be in big troubles as the liberals there will not quit until they remove Ghanoshi.

Most probably the choices are hard for Obama whatsoever will be his decision. But also most probably he will wage a war to cover his failure to take the proper decision. It is up to the congress to leave this loser in place but if they leave him they will face another harder decision that will be sending the American army to defend Japan according to their treaty with it after the Chinese navy harassing Japan and approached and chased the ships of the seventh American fleet threatening to fire few weeks ago.