Report: Why Sanctions On Iran Aren't Working

Iran is currently facing the most severe and strictest sanctions ever imposed on a country. Though these measures seek to curb Iranian nuclear ambitions, a recent IAEA report suggests continued nuclear advances by Iran. This begs the question: are sanctions affecting Tehran’s nuclear calculus?

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEContact: Reza Marashi
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New report explains why economic pain has not caused Tehran to shift its nuclear policy

Washington DC - Sanctions have so far failed to affect
the Iranian government’s nuclear policy and are unlikely to do so in the future
given the perceptions and calculations of the Iranian elite, according to a new
report by the National Iranian American Council (NIAC).

“Never Give In and Never Give Up” [pdf] studies the impact of sanctions on Tehran’s nuclear calculus
and identifies the factors that have enabled the Iranian government to sustain
its policy, despite mounting economic pressure.

“Sanctions have
had a devastating impact on the Iranian economy,” says Dr. Trita Parsi,
one of the authors of the report. “But they have also prevented Iranian
stakeholders from constructing a narrative that could enable policy changes.
And contrary to expectations in the U.S., key stakeholders in the Iranian
regime have not lobbied the government to shift its nuclear stance.”

Relying on over
30 in-depth interviews with senior Iranian political officials, analysts and
members of the business community, the report was authored by renowned Iranian
economist Bijan Khajehpour, NIAC Research Director Reza Marashi, and NIAC
President Trita Parsi.

As a result, the
authors contend that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s narrative – which portrays
the West as a brutal group out to “get” Iran and keep it dependent on foreign
powers – continues to dominate the discourse within Iran’s political elite and
guide its decision-making.  In turn, private
lobbying campaigns have tended to focus on securing domestic economic concessions
rather pushing for nuclear concessions to the West.

“Overall,
Iran’s response to sanctions can be broken down into three separate but
mutually reinforcing categories,” explains Reza Marashi. “Adapting its
economy to bend but not break, increasing efforts to target Western and Israeli
interests around the world, and counter-escalating by creating new facts on the
ground with regard to its nuclear program.”

It is highly unlikely
that Iran will succumb to sanctions pressure at a time when Khamenei’s
narrative remains unchallenged, key stakeholders are not visibly lobbying for
policy shifts, and no proportionate sanctions relief is put on the negotiating
table by Western powers, according to the report.

“Ultimately,
capitulation to Western pressure is viewed by the Iranian regime as a greater
threat to its survival than even a military confrontation with the United
States,” Bijan Khajehpour concludes.

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The National Iranian American Council (NIAC)
is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing the interests
of the Iranian-American community. We accomplish our mission by supplying the
resources, knowledge and tools to enable greater civic participation by Iranian
Americans and informed decision-making by policymakers.