NEW: Field’s upbeat Prop. 30 poll at odds with insiders’ assumptions

Nov. 1, 2012

By Chris Reed

Has the fog that’s settled over presidential polling because of the gap between Nate Silver’s 538 blog and the Gallup/Rasmussen numbers arrived in California? Maybe. On Proposition 30, we’re seeing plenty of “precriminations,” as Andrew Sullivan would say. Pro-30 Los Angeles Times columnist George Skelton faulted Gov. Jerry Brown’s strategy in this morning’s newspaper.

“There hasn’t been a consistent, coherent message to voters about why they should back the measure, which would temporarily boost income taxes for single-filers earning more than $250,000 and couples making more than $500,000. There’d also be a tiny quarter-cent sales tax hike.

“Start with those details, which were designed to provide the campaign with a populist “soak the rich” argument it has failed to really use.

“You don’t hear in TV ads that only 1% of income tax filers, according to the legislative analyst, would pay the higher rates. Neither is there an effort to put the puny sales tax increase in perspective.”

The buzz in California’s chattering class has also been downbeat on Prop. 30′s chances since it went below 50 percent in polling a month ago.

But the Field Poll released today shows it winning 48 percent to 38 percent, with 14 percent of voters undecided. I’d much rather be on the pro-30 side of those numbers than the anti-30 side.

What the anti-30 side may need, oddly enough, is for Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom to do more interviews. Newsom continues to be seen by some as a handsome empty suit. But he’s practically the only state Democrat to be honest about California’s anti-business climate. Now his candor extends to critiquing the governor’s dishonest sales tactics in support of 30.