Retail Sales Drop bad for 2ndQ GDP
Retail Sales (June 2015)
– Retail Sales month/month -0.3%. Previous was +1.0%.
– Retail Sales less autos month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.8%
– Less Autos & Gas month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.5%.
This is seriously lower than expected and points out the disconnect between the Consumer Sentiment/Confidence Indices which are supposed to forecast what consumers are going to spend and what they actually do. Retail Sales are the heart of GDP and this indicates that 2ndQ2015 GDP estimates need downward revision and that the story that the economy is doing just fine is flawed.
Import and Export Prices (June 2015)
– Export Prices month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.6%
– Export Prices year/year -5.7%. Previous was -5.9%
– Import Prices month/month -0.1%. Previous was +1.2%
– Import Prices year/year -10.0%. Previous was -9.6%
This is about currency instability and, perhaps, whatever is really happening in China. A stronger dollar drives down Exports and can drive down Export Prices.
Redbook (week ended 7/11/2015)
– Store Sales year/year +1.4%. Previous was +2.0%.
This could point to a weaker July that expected but this is only one week.
Business Inventories (May 2015)
– Inventories month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.4%.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (June 2015)
– level 94.1. Previous was 98.3.
This slowing was not expected but this is a survey index compiled monthly by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
Source: http://thebasispoint.com/2015/07/14/retail-sales-drop-bad-for-2ndq-gdp/
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I wonder how walmart is doing now that they closed all the stores and scared all their former customers away?