Syrian Chem Weapons Seen at Risk as Nation Splinters

Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The risk that the Syrian government’s chemical weapons could fall into other hands is heightened by the presence of multiple warring factions there now and the possibility that the nation might permanently splinter, intelligence and arms control experts said this week.

The main players in the rebellion that began in 2011 are the regime and the Free Syrian Army that seeks to oust President Bashar Assad. There are also “undoubtedly” Sunni jihadists in the fight against the government, which itself has longstanding ties to the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah, said George Friedman, chief executive officer of the private intelligence firm Stratfor.

“There are a lot of groups operating. Their intentions are unclear,” Friedman told Global Security Newswire. “It’s not just Hezbollah that they’re concerned about because there are Islamist groups undoubtedly operating. There’s still al-Qaida in Iraq; that’s another place [chemical weapons] could go.”

The 18-month rebellion could fragment Syria, leaving differing entities with control of sections of the country that might house some segment of the nation’s massive stocks of lethal warfare materials, he said.

Syria’s recently defected prime minister claimed last week the government has control over just one-third of the nation. Independent news assessments have indicated that Damascus remains in regime hands, along with southern and coastal areas. The regime appears to have lost control in the north and east, while central Syria is contested.

“The question of the status of chemical weapons is no longer simply a question of what the Assad government wants. Those weapons may fall into the hands of other forces,” said Friedman, who identified “a hodgepodge of groups, of religious factions, of political factions” now operating in Syria.

An analysis this month by Stratfor security specialist Scott Stewart cited “local and transnational jihadists” such as Hamas, Jabhat al-Nusra and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-Central Command.

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http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/syrian-chemical-arms-seen-risk-nation-splinters/

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