Obama interview in Atlantic indicates he poorly briefed on Israeli

Obama interview in Atlantic indicates he poorly briefed on Israeli =

Palestinian affairs and painfully silly about Iran
Dr. Aaron Lerner IMRA 2 March 2014

With Prime Minister Binyamin on his way to Washington, President Obama’s =

just released interview with The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg provides a =

clear picture as to just how poorly briefed he in on Israeli Palestinian =

affairs and painfully silly about Iran.

+ Painfully silly On Iran: “they are capable of changing;… even if that =

takes … 20 years, then that=92s very much an outcome we should desire.
Question: What logic is there to the U.S. plan not to apparently place any =

restrictions on Iranian weapons development and production (other than =

taking the last enrichment steps of the material for the nuclear warhead) =

while allowing Iran to retain the equipment to enrich uranium to weapons =

grade given that Mr. Obama concedes they may not change their dangerous way=
s =

for the next two decades?

+ Bad briefing on Israel: “the window is closing for a peace deal ..in part =

because of changes in demographics… There are going to be more =

Palestinians, not fewer Palestinians, as time goes on. There are going to b=
e =

more Arab-Israelis, not fewer Arab-Israelis, as time goes on.

While the American Jewish staffers and their Israeli Leftist pals continue =

to pitch the demographic argument, the figures keep moving in Israel’s =

favor, with Palestinian and Israeli Arab fertility rates declining while =

Jewish rates go up. Even those secular Russian immigrants whose cousins =

back home barely approached a sustaining fertility rate are having 3 and 4 =

kids in the Jewish Homeland.

And to make matters worse: Israelis are slowly starting to realize that th=
e =

REAL demographic threat would happen if a Palestinian state were created an=
d =

it was flooded with millions of Arabs who had someone in their family livin=
g =

for any period of time during the British Mandate.

Given how many dramatic twists and turns have recently taken place in the =

region and the world it doesn’t require much of an imagination to recogniz=
e =

that there are many plausible scenarios according to which Israel finds =

itself unable to cope with a flood of millions of Arabs crossing from the =

sovereign Palestinian state into what was left of Israel.

Keep in mind Mr. Obama’s warning: The condemnation of the international =

community can translate into a lack of cooperation when it comes to key =

security interests.

Again: pitching the demographic argument may work among fellow travelers – =

but it has long ago lost its punch among thinking Israelis.

+ Painfully silly argument: “We do not know what a successor to Abbas will =

look like.”
So Israel should cut a deal based on Mahmoud Abbas when there is no telling =

what kind of radical may take his place?

+ Bad sense of what is happening in the world: “situation will not improve”
Mr. Obama is the president of a country that is developing domestic energy =

resources at breakneck pace that promises to radically change the face of =

the world in the coming decades. And that includes the implementation of =

technologies that while not favored by the greens of the world have shown =

such success that even some European countries have opted to join in =

fracking shale. The British Geological Survey estimates there could be =

1,300 trillion cubic feet of shale gas in the north of England alone. And =

the more energy available from the West the better the situation for Israel.

Yes. There is every reason to believe that the situation for Israel will =

indeed improve.

+ Poor briefing: “The only thing that I’ve heard is, “We=92ll just keep on =

doing what we=92re doing, and deal with problems as they arise. And we’ll =

build settlements where we can. And where there are problems in the West =

Bank, we will deal with them forcefully. We=92ll cooperate or co-opt the =

Palestinian Authority.” And yet, at no point do you ever see an actual =

resolution to the problem.”

A suggestion: He talk with Minister Bennett. On the one hand he does in =

fact have a plan. On the other hand, it is silly to suggest that a =

necessary condition for a program is for it to provide “an actual resolutio=
n =

to the problem” – this when a realistic assessment is that as far as the =

Arabs are concerned Israel’s existence is “the problem”.

+ Skewed sense of the direction o developments: “there comes a point where =

you can=92t manage this anymore, and then you start having to make very =

difficult choices.”
An alternative narrative is that much of Palestinian street is disgusted =

with two decades of Oslo bred corruption and could very well breath a sigh =

of relief if a serious program was implemented based on a combination of =

full Israeli citizenship rights for Arabs in areas annexed along with rampe=
d =

up programs aimed at making the remaining Palestinian autonomous urban area=
s =

economic successes.

+ Painfully silly argument: ” Do you place restrictions on Arab-Israelis in =

ways that run counter to Israel=92s traditions?”
Oops. So is Mr. Obama suggesting that even if we give the Palestinians =

everything they want that we still stuck with terrible problem posed by the =

Israeli Arabs?

+ Painfully silly argument: ” It means reduced influence for us, the United =

States, in issues that are of interest to Israel. It=92s survivable, but it=
is =

not preferable.

=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
Obama: ‘The Window Is Closing’ for a Viable Israel-Palestine Peace Deal
In an interview with The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, the president =

discusses Iran, Syria, and his view of the imperatives now facing Israel’s =

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Matt Ford Mar 2 2014, 4:09 PM ET

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/03/obama-the-window-i=

s-closing-for-a-viable-israel-palestine-peace-deal/284161/

President Obama spoke on Israeli-Palestinian peace, the Iranian nuclear =

negotiations, and the Syrian civil war in a wide-ranging interview with The =

Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg conducted on Thursday and released on Sunday =

afternoon.

After a global economic depression, the turmoil of the Arab Spring, the U.S=
. =

military’s withdrawal from Iraq, and a catastrophic civil war in neighborin=
g =

Syria, Obama sees a much different Middle East than when he took office. =

Perhaps the most significant change is the growing sense of rapprochement =

between Iran and the great powers as they inch closer to a diplomatic deal =

on the Islamic republic’s nuclear program. For Obama, this progress comes =

despite Iran’s other activities in the region.

OBAMA: Here=92s what I understand. For years now, Iran has been an =

irresponsible international actor. They’ve sponsored terrorism. They have =

threatened their neighbors. They have financed actions that have killed =

people in neighboring states.

And Iran has also exploited or fanned sectarian divisions in other =

countries. In light of that record, it=92s completely understandable for ot=
her =

countries to be not only hostile towards Iran but also doubtful about the =

possibilities of Iran changing. I get that. But societies do change — I =

think there is a difference between an active hostility and sponsoring of =

terrorism and mischief, and a country that you=92re in competition with and =

you don=92t like but it’s not blowing up homes in your country or trying to =

overthrow your government.

GOLDBERG: And you feel there=92s a real opportunity to achieve a genuine =

breakthrough?

OBAMA: Here=92s my view. Set aside Iranian motives. Let=92s assume that Ira=
n is =

not going to change. It=92s a theocracy. It=92s anti-Semitic. It is anti-Su=
nni. =

And the new leaders are just for show. Let=92s assume all that. If we can =

ensure that they don=92t have nuclear weapons, then we have at least preven=
ted =

them from bullying their neighbors, or heaven forbid, using those weapons, =

and the other misbehavior they=92re engaging in is manageable.

If, on the other hand, they are capable of changing; if, in fact, as a =

consequence of a deal on their nuclear program those voices and trends =

inside of Iran are strengthened, and their economy becomes more integrated =

into the international community, and there=92s more travel and greater =

openness, even if that takes a decade or 15 years or 20 years, then that=92=
s =

very much an outcome we should desire.

Negotiations with Iran are closely linked to another perennial American =

diplomatic endeavor: resolving the long-standing conflict between Israel an=
d =

Palestine. Since Obama won re-election over a year ago, U.S. Secretary of =

State John Kerry has spear-headed the administration’s toughest push yet on =

advancing the peace process. Kerry’s efforts have borne some tentative sign=
s =

of progress, with a framework accord planned to be announced in the coming =

weeks.

At times, the Obama administration’s increased sense of urgency has caused =

friction with Israeli officials. Israeli defense minister Moshe Yaalon =

publicly apologized in January after telling an Israeli newspaper that Kerr=
y =

is “acting out of misplaced obsession and messianic fervor.” When Kerry =

warned that boycotts against Israel could intensify without a peace deal, =

Israeli minister of strategic affairs Yuval Steinitz retorted that Israel =

“cannot be expected to negotiate with a gun to its head.”

GOLDBERG: Let me read you something that John Kerry told the American Jewis=
h =

Committee not long ago: =93We=92re running out of time. We=92re running out=
of =

possibilities. And let=92s be clear: If we do not succeed now — and I know=
I=92m =

raising those stakes — but if we do not succeed now, we may not get anothe=
r =

chance.=94 He has also suggested strongly that there might be a third intif=
ada =

down the road and that if this peace process doesn=92t work, Israel itself =

could be facing international isolation and boycott. Do you agree with this =

assessment? Is this the last chance?

OBAMA: Well, look, I=92m a congenital optimist. And, obviously, this is a =

conflict that has gone on for decades. And humanity has a way of muddling =

through, even in difficult circumstances. So you never know how things play =

themselves out.

But John Kerry, somebody who has been a fierce advocate and defender on =

behalf of Israel for decades now, I think he has been simply stating what =

observers inside of Israel and outside of Israel recognize, which is that =

with each successive year, the window is closing for a peace deal that both =

the Israelis can accept and the Palestinians can accept — in part because =

of changes in demographics; in part because of what’s been happening with =

settlements; in part because Abbas is getting older, and I think nobody =

would dispute that whatever disagreements you may have with him, he has =

proven himself to be somebody who has been committed to nonviolence and =

diplomatic efforts to resolve this issue. We do not know what a successor t=
o =

Abbas will look like.

[...]

I believe that President Abbas is sincere about his willingness to recogniz=
e =

Israel and its right to exist, to recognize Israel=92s legitimate security =

needs, to shun violence, to resolve these issues in a diplomatic fashion =

that meets the concerns of the people of Israel. And I think that this is a =

rare quality not just within the Palestinian territories, but in the Middle =

East generally. For us not to seize that opportunity would be a mistake. An=
d =

I think John is referring to that fact.

We don=92t know exactly what would happen. What we know is that it gets har=
der =

by the day. What we also know is that Israel has become more isolated =

internationally. We had to stand up in the Security Council in ways that 20 =

years ago would have involved far more European support, far more support =

from other parts of the world when it comes to Israel=92s position. And tha=
t=92s =

a reflection of a genuine sense on the part of a lot of countries out there =

that this issue continues to fester, is not getting resolved, and that =

nobody is willing to take the leap to bring it to closure.

Another challenge for Obama’s efforts toward Israeli-Palestinian peace is =

his rocky relationship with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The =

two leaders are scheduled to meet this week. Netanyahu, who took the helm o=
f =

the Israeli government for a second time two months after Obama’s first =

inauguration, vowed to “stand steadfast” against “various pressures” on =

Israel. Speaking with Goldberg, Obama struck an amicable chord.

GOLDBERG: My impression watching your relationship with Netanyahu over the =

years is that you admire his intelligence and you admire his political =

skill, but you also get frustrated by an inability or unwillingness on his =

part to spend political capital — in terms of risking coalition =

partnerships — in order to embrace what he says he accepts, a two-state =

solution. Is that a fair statement? When he comes to Washington, how hard =

are you going to push him out of his comfort zone?

OBAMA: What is absolutely true is Prime Minister Netanyahu is smart. He is =

tough. He is a great communicator. He is obviously a very skilled =

politician. And I take him at his word when he says that he sees the =

necessity of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I think he =

genuinely believes that.

I also think that politics in Israel around this issue are very difficult. =

You have the chaos that=92s been swirling around the Middle East. People lo=
ok =

at what’s happening in Syria. They look at what=92s happening in Lebanon. =

Obviously, they look at what=92s happening in Gaza. And understandably a lo=
t =

of people ask themselves, “Can we afford to have potential chaos at our =

borders, so close to our cities?” So he is dealing with all of that, and I =

get that.

What I’ve said to him privately is the same thing that I say publicly, whic=
h =

is the situation will not improve or resolve itself. This is not a situatio=
n =

where you wait and the problem goes away. There are going to be more =

Palestinians, not fewer Palestinians, as time goes on. There are going to b=
e =

more Arab-Israelis, not fewer Arab-Israelis, as time goes on.

And for Bibi to seize the moment in a way that perhaps only he can, =

precisely because of the political tradition that he comes out of and the =

credibility he has with the right inside of Israel, for him to seize this =

moment is perhaps the greatest gift he could give to future generations of =

Israelis. But it=92s hard. And as somebody who occupies a fairly tough job =

himself, I=92m always sympathetic to somebody else=92s politics.

But he also mixed sensitivity with concern. Without a viable peace deal to =

resolve the West Bank occupation and the status of Palestinians and Arab =

Israelis, Obama questioned what the long-term effects on Israeli society an=
d =

political culture would be.

OBAMA: I have not yet heard, however, a persuasive vision of how Israel =

survives as a democracy and a Jewish state at peace with its neighbors in =

the absence of a peace deal with the Palestinians and a two-state solution. =

Nobody has presented me a credible scenario.

The only thing that I’ve heard is, “We=92ll just keep on doing what we=92re =

doing, and deal with problems as they arise. And we’ll build settlements =

where we can. And where there are problems in the West Bank, we will deal =

with them forcefully. We=92ll cooperate or co-opt the Palestinian Authority=
.” =

And yet, at no point do you ever see an actual resolution to the problem.

[...]

It=92s maintenance of a chronic situation. And my assessment, which is shar=
ed =

by a number of Israeli observers, I think, is there comes a point where you =

can=92t manage this anymore, and then you start having to make very difficu=
lt =

choices. Do you resign yourself to what amounts to a permanent occupation o=
f =

the West Bank? Is that the character of Israel as a state for a long period =

of time? Do you perpetuate, over the course of a decade or two decades, mor=
e =

and more restrictive policies in terms of Palestinian movement? Do you plac=
e =

restrictions on Arab-Israelis in ways that run counter to Israel=92s =

traditions?

This, Obama fears, could weaken Israel’s position in future negotiations, =

especially as Europe and other members of the international community grow =

increasingly critical of Israeli policies.

OBAMA: Look, sometimes people are dismissive of multilateral institutions =

and the United Nations and the EU [European Union] and the high commissione=
r =

of such and such. And sometimes there=92s good reason to be dismissive. The=
re=92s =

a lot of hot air and rhetoric and posturing that may not always mean much. =

But in today=92s world, where power is much more diffuse, where the threats =

that any state or peoples face can come from non-state actors and =

asymmetrical threats, and where international cooperation is needed in orde=
r =

to deal with those threats, the absence of international goodwill makes you =

less safe. The condemnation of the international community can translate =

into a lack of cooperation when it comes to key security interests. It mean=
s =

reduced influence for us, the United States, in issues that are of interest =

to Israel. It=92s survivable, but it is not preferable.

Whatever cautious optimism Obama has for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations =

and negotiations with Iran did not extend to Syria. Earlier last month, =

Bashar al-Assad’s regime missed a February 5 deadline to transport all of =

its estimated 1,300-ton chemical weapons stockpile out of the country, with =

only 11% of its chemical weapons supply moved.

The U.S., which brokered the disarmament deal with Russia last year after a =

deadly chemical weapons attack killed over 1,000 Syrians in a Damascus =

suburb, accused the Syrian government of dragging its feet in implementing =

the deal. Diplomats hammered out a new timetable last week that hopes to =

complete the challenge by August. Obama acknowledged critics of his Syria =

policy by pointing out the lack of viable alternatives.

GOLDBERG: I was reading your Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech last night=
, =

and I wanted to quote one thing you said: =93I believe that force can be =

justified on humanitarian grounds, as it was in the Balkans, or in other =

places that have been scarred by war. Inaction tears at our conscience and =

can lead to more costly intervention later.=94

I was really struck by that last sentence. I=92m wondering at what point in =

Syria does it become too much to bear? I=92m not talking about the bifurcat=
ed =

argument, boots on the ground or nothing, but what does Assad have to do to =

provoke an American-led military response? Another way of asking this is: I=
f =

you could roll back the clock three years, could you have done more to buil=
d =

up the more-moderate opposition groups?

OBAMA: I think those who believe that two years ago, or three years ago, =

there was some swift resolution to this thing had we acted more forcefully, =

fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the conflict in Syria and the =

conditions on the ground there.

When you have a professional army that is well-armed and sponsored by two =

large states who have huge stakes in this, and they are fighting against a =

farmer, a carpenter, an engineer who started out as protesters and suddenly =

now see themselves in the midst of a civil conflict — the notion that we =

could have, in a clean way that didn’t commit U.S. military forces, changed =

the equation on the ground there was never true.

Obama also challenged the conventional wisdom that Bashar al-Assad and his =

allies are “winning” the bloody civil war that will enter its third year =

later this month with over 200,000 dead and millions displaced.

OBAMA: Over the last two years I have pushed our teams to find out what are =

the best options in a bad situation. And we will continue to do everything =

we can to bring about a political resolution, to pressure the Russians and =

the Iranians, indicating to them that it is not in their interests to be =

involved in a perpetual war.

I’m always darkly amused by this notion that somehow Iran has won in Syria. =

I mean, you hear sometimes people saying, “They=92re winning in Syria.” And =

you say, “This was their one friend in the Arab world, a member of the Arab =

League, and it is now in rubble.” It=92s bleeding them because they=92re ha=
ving =

to send in billions of dollars. Their key proxy, Hezbollah, which had a ver=
y =

comfortable and powerful perch in Lebanon, now finds itself attacked by =

Sunni extremists. This isn=92t good for Iran. They=92re losing as much as =

anybody. The Russians find their one friend in the region in rubble and =

delegitimized.

And although Obama concluded the interview with a final note on his =

administration’s policy towards Syria, his words also reflect the broader =

challenges of U.S. foreign policy in an increasingly unstable world.

There is a great desire not just to stand there, but to do something. We ar=
e =

doing a lot; we have to do more. But we have to make sure that what we do =

does not make a situation worse or engulf us in yet another massive =

enterprise at a time when we have great demands here at home and a lot of =

international obligations abroad. =

________________________________________
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