The Middle East after Trump
Ahmed Hany Hassanain
It was a big surprise for the American people and for the world as well. The American and the international media manipulated the statistical reports and the opinion polls so that most people thought that Hilary Clinton would be the winner. Even European politicians sided with her before the election-day. Some compared 2016 in America to 1989 in the ex-Soviet Union and said the transition from the unipolar system to the multipolar system has started.
Did the forty fifth president of the US come as a corrective step from those who plan for the American strategy as research centers and security bodies? He came against the will of the American media and most lobbies. Even he is not so popular among republicans. In fact one cannot predict the American foreign policy for the next four years without guessing the mechanisms that brought Trump to the White House.
The American mistakes in the Middle East were somewhat fatal mistakes that affected the credibility of the superpower and its prestige. Not only in the Middle East but also in Europe and East Asia the US just gave words without real actions. The engagement of the US and its allies in sponsoring ISIS and other terrorists tarnished the image of the US. The unipolar superpower has two choices now either open the road for multi-polar system or risk clashes with Russia and China.
Simply Hilary should go and Republican should come with new policies that keep the American face during the withdrawal from some hot areas and compromising with other global and regional powers about some conflicts. The other option was risking big losses and when it comes to business and money the American decision makers choose the cheapest.
It does not mean that the American research centers left the Pax-Americana but they need a phase to reassess their global situation after the defeats that Hilary/Obama and their policies did to them. The messages were clear for Russia and China. Cooperation not confrontation. For the Middle East it was clearer when Trump praised Sisi and said he will work with him and King Abdalla of Jordan to end terrorism and ISIS. However to wage a war against ISIS Tramp should start from his homeland. ISIS used brand new 4X4 vehicles and western arms and all equipment were financed from accounts in Western banks and in particular American banks. If he wants to achieve victory soon the starting point to arrest financiers and trainers. Those on the ground will surrender and confess. In fact this is the test that proves credibility and rebuild trust.
The Middle East is more than ISIS spreading terror. It is about the balance between regional forces and Tramp should provide a solid formula that keep balance and interests of the regional powers. The hot spots in the Middle East now extends over a wide area from Kurdistan and Iran to Morocco and from Turkey to Ethiopia.
One of the chronic problems in the Middle East is the Palestinian/Israeli conflict. Insisting on the two states solution simply complicated and will complicate the case more. Can Tramp provide a new formula to solve the crisis like one secular state solution?
Regardless of anything Tramp will start with his historical rival Russia to solve global crises and from that base the situation in the Middle East will be reformed. Now that the front became Global again the USA should succumb at least for not less than fifty years to a new multi-polar global system or risk losing the leadership and the internal repercussion my expose the US to more than economic crisis and may affect the unity of the country.
It is early to be optimistic about Tramp administration and intention but at least the frank support of fanatics may end. Still all extend arms with olive branches while holding rifles by the other hand.