Israeli official: (under quiet for quiet) Hizbollah continues buildup

Dr.Aaron Lerner – IMRA: Under “quiet for quiet” once Hizbollah manages to
smuggle in equipment from Syria Israel will not act against that equipment -
regardless of its strategic significance – as long as Hizbollah doesn’t
shoot too much into Israel. This is the same policy Israel has towards the
arms buildup in the Gaza Strip.
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In Israeli Military, Guarded Optimism for 2017
By: Barbara Opall-Rome, January 1, 2017
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/in-israeli-military-guarded-optimism-for-2017

TEL AVIV – While war will continue to rage in much of the region writ large,
Israeli military forecasts for 2017 are cautiously optimistic that the
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) may get through the year that began Sunday
without having to wage major combat operations.

“The probability for war in 2017, generally speaking, is low,” a senior
defense official here said. “But I have to note how wars start today: It can
be that both sides want to go to war; one side wants to go to war; or both
do not want war. Today, the most probable war is one in which both sides
didn’t want it, but due to the dynamic of escalation, we might find
ourselves in it.”

As a result, the senior official said Israel must be mindful of the
unintended consequences of its actions with regard to neighbors at home –
Hizbollah in the north, Gaza-based Hamas and the Palestinian Authority in
the West Bank – as well as countries much farther way, foremost among them
Iran.

“We, as the strongest side that I believe knows better, should calculate
our steps in a better way… The dynamic of escalation is something we have to
watch carefully,” the official said.

In an intelligence assessment shared with reporters here, the official
characterized threats to Israel in 2017 this way:

-The most probable source for instability will come from the West Bank;
-The threat that can be ignited “in the easiest way” will come from Hamas in
Gaza; and
-“The strongest force “in front of us” is Hizbollah, “but the probability is
low as long as we don’t get into a dynamic of escalation.”

With regard to Syria, the official cited Israeli angst over the prospect of
Iran and Hizbollah remaining entrenched in the war-torn country once Russia
and other powers reduce their footprint there.

“I believe that Israel has strong enough advantages to cope with Bashar
al-Assad,” the official said of the Syrian leader. “Our concern is that Iran
and Hizbollah will grow ever more confident in Syria when the superpowers
leave or reduce their presence… and that will not be a good end to this
story.”

He estimated that Hizbollah has about 8000 personnel in Syria today. Since
war erupted there in 2011, he said the Lebanese-based organization suffered
1700 deaths and about 6000 injured. But despite Hizbollah being “stretched”
in Syria, the official said the organization continues to arm itself for a
future confrontation with Israel, which elevates the probability for war,
particularly if Israel deems it necessary for preemptive attack.

“They haven’t stopped for one day their buildup against Israel… and we don’t
want to wait for the first day of the war,” the official said in clear
reference to preemptive operations.

“When you let so many weapons systems get into Lebanon, you push a higher
probability of a war. Because [Hizbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah speaks
almost every week about the day they will conquer Israel. And if he speaks
like that every week, why wait? Why give him a feeling of being strong
enough?”

The official also suggested that Iranian-backed Hizbollah forces in Syria
could turn on Russia with advanced arms, particularly anti-aircraft weapons.
“When an organization gets weapon systems that are very important, it’s a
problem for all of us. It’s a problem when this organization decides to use
these weapons against a civilian airliner.”

He added, “If I had opportunity to give advice to President Putin, I’d say
you should keep an eye on Hizbollah if you want a stable Middle East and if
you want to protect your gains in Syria.”

As for Iran, the official noted that while the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA) between Tehran and world powers removes the immediacy of the
nuclear threat, Iran’s actions in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and “within some
terror groups” in the West Bank constitute an ever-present threat to Israel.

On the nuclear agreement itself, the official assessed that Tehran “is
fulfilling its side of the deal” and that the historic accord “should be an
opportunity to improve stability.”

When pressed about anticipated consequences should US President-elect Donald
Trump and the Republican-led Congress seek to annul or renegotiate the
nuclear accord, the official offered this politically circumspect, yet clear
response:

“After almost one and a half years since the signing of [the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)]… is it time to reassess this
agreement? I’d say: Iran is still the main cause for terrorism in the Middle
East. Its ballistic missile program, since July 2015, has been expanding and
we’ve seen a growing number of launches. And what happens after 14 years? I
think the international community should strengthen the answers we have to
these three problems. It can be carrot and sticks… But the agreement should
be an opportunity to improve stability and we shouldn’t miss this
opportunity.”

The official noted that 2017 promises to be a “year of tension” in Iran
leading up to presidential elections in May. “[President Hassan] Rouhani
wants to focus on internal issues while the supreme leader, together with
the [Islamic Revolution Guard Corps] want to export the revolution… The
election will be a kind of tool to calibrate the flames of this tension.”

He noted that Rouhani’s camp emerged stronger from parliamentary elections
last June while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is ill. Nevertheless, he noted
that the Khamenei “speaks sharply” and remains strongly in control of “the
system” he leads.

“He’s also smart about knowing his limitations,” the official observed about
the Iranian supreme leader. “There’s a limit to how much pressure they can
put on the population.”

@opallrome

Source: http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=71977